高盛预计布伦特原油价格夏季将达到65美元

原标题：高盛预计布伦特原油价格夏季将达到65美元

    中国石化新闻网讯 据1月12日Oil Monster消息：高盛周一表示，受沙特减产影响，布伦特原油价格可能在2021年夏季升至每桶65美元。

    这家华尔街投资银行此前预测，油价将在年底达到65美元。

    上周，世界银行表示，沙特承诺减产的幅度超过其与其他欧佩克+产油国签订的协议所要求的幅度，这表明在新冠病毒封锁后，石油需求正在减弱。

    布伦特原油周一一度下跌1美元，至每桶55美元左右。而2020年油价下跌约20%。

    该行预测，标普/高盛商品指数(GSCI)在未来3个月、6个月和12个月期间的大宗商品回报率分别为5.8%、9.5%和10.2%。

    该银行称，贵金属在未来12个月内预计将上涨28.7%，其次是能源，为13.7%，工业金属为13.3%，农业将下跌4.4%。

    “然而，鉴于最近的反弹幅度，市场近期可能会进行整固，”该行表示。

    该行去年11月预计，未来3个月、6个月和12个月的回报率分别为3.4%、9.4%和26.8%左右。

    冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

    原文如下：

    Goldman Expects Brent Oil Prices to Reach $65 Per Barrel in Summer 2021

    Brent oil prices could rise to $65 per barrel by summer 2021, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, driven by output cuts in Saudi Arabia and the implications of a shift in power to the Democrats in the United States.

    The Wall Street investment bank had previously predicted oil would hit $65 by year-end.

    The Democrat-led sweep of the U.S. Senate runoff elections and Saudi Arabia's recent announcement of unilateral production cuts have left commodity markets with a "tighter" medium-term outlook, analysts at the bank said in a note.

    Last week, the bank said Saudi Arabia's pledge to cut its output by more than required under its pact with other OPEC+ producers points to weakening oil demand following new COVID-19 lockdowns.

    Brent crude fell as much as $1 per barrel on Monday, to trade around $55. Oil prices shed about 20% in 2020.

    The bank forecast returns of 5.8%, 9.5% and 10.2% on commodities over a three-, six- and 12-month period respectively on the S&P/GSCI Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI).

    Precious metals were seen returning 28.7% over a 12-month period, followed by energy at 13.7% and industrial metals at 13.3%, while agriculture would lose 4.4%, the bank said.

    "Given the magnitude of the recent rally, however, markets are likely to consolidate near-term," the bank said.

    The bank had in November forecast returns of about 3.4%, 9.4% and 26.8% respectively over a three-, six- and 12- month period.