[MC源码] Opening Range Breakout策略程式码【Multicharts 平台】

程式码：

本帖隐藏的内容需要回复才可以浏览

Playing the opening range breakout

Part 1

by Toby Crabel



开盘区间突破交易

第一部分

托比.卡布尔

Opening range breakout is one of the most important indicators of daily market direction that a trader　can utilize.

开盘区间突破,是交易员可以用于识别日内趋势方向的最重要的模式之一。

An opening range breakout (ORB) is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the　opening range. When the predetermined amount (the "stretch") is computed, a buy stop is placed that　amount above the high of the opening range and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the low of　the opening range. The first stop that is traded is the position and the other stop is a protective stop.

开盘区间突破交易的触发，是依据预先设定的开盘价上、下的一定范围被突破。经过事先的计算，我们可以在开盘价的上、下，等距离设置买进、卖出突破位置，当其中的一个方向出现突破，另一个方向预设的停止买、卖点，就变成了这笔交易的保护性止损位。

The stretch is determined by looking at the previous 10 days and averaging the differences between the　open for each day and the closest extreme to the open on each day.

我们需要连续计算最近10天内，每天的开盘价与当天距开盘价较近的那个高低点之间的差额（译者释：MIN(H-O,O-L)），并且取10天的平均值，作为开盘区间突破交易的价格范围预设标准。

In a market with a strong bias in one direction or just after a clear supply or demand indication, a trade in　only one direction is taken. This is called an Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP). The only

order entered is the stop in the direction of the entry. The protective stop is entered only after the trade　has been entered.

在一个方向明确的市场上，或者紧随一个清晰的供求关系之后，我们只做一个方向的交易。这叫做：有偏向的开盘区间突破（ORBP）。我们的下单指令仅限于确定方向上的停止进入点，当买卖条件触发后，保护性止损单会紧随。

If the market trades to the stretch in the opposite direction first, the preference is nullified and the resting　order is cancelled. This requires you to monitor the market during the session. Intraday market

monitoring is not a sacrifice by any means and enhances the system.

如果市场先朝着相反的方向运动，那么我们预定的交易方向就变得无效，剩余的交易指令订单也将被取消。这就要求你保持盯盘，盯盘并不是一种无谓的行为，它反而会强化你的系统交易。

ORB vs. ORBP

Opening range breakout is effective after an inside day that has a smaller daily range than the previous　four days (IDnr4 in Figure 1 ) and after any day that has a daily range less than the previous six days

(NR7) whether an inside day or not.

开盘区间突破交易，如果发生在一个内部日（内包K线）之后，并且它的日内波幅小于先前的四个交易日，将会更加有效（ID+NR4,图1）。如果前一天的日内波幅小于先前的六个交易日（NR6），那么无论前一天是否属于内部日，都会加强开盘区间突破交易的成功概率。

"Hook" days also tend to precede big moves in one direction. A hook day is any day that opens　above/below the previous days' high/low then proceeds to reverse the previous day's close but does so with a daily range less than the previous day.

出击日，也助于在突破方向发生大的波动。出击日，是指某一天的开盘高于/低于前一天的最高价/最低价，但收盘却反向运动，低于/高于前一天的收盘价。同时，日内波动幅度也要求小于前一天。

March copper in Figure 1 displays examples of all these patterns. Inside days with the narrowest range in　four days (IDnr4) occur at points c, e, g, i, n, o and t. Days with ranges smaller than those of the previous

six days (NR7) occur at points a, d, f, g, h, j, m, n, p and s. Hook days occur at points b, q and r. Notice　the proximity of some of the next day's openings to one of the extremes for that day and the general

tendency of the close of the same day to be at the opposite extreme.

图一所示的铜三月合约，展示了上述所有的模式。内部日，并且窄幅波动小于前四天的，在点C、E、G、I、N、O、T.I。小于前六天的波动幅度，发生在点adfghjmnps。出击日发生在点BQR.值得注意的是，这些模式发生后的一个交易日，出现了一些开盘开在最高、最低位，而收盘往往受趋势的推动，收在了相反的最低、最高位。

The earlier in the session the entry is taken the better chances for　success.

越早介入的开盘区间突破交易，往往是成功概率越高的交易。

Opening range breakout: early entry

Part 2

开盘区间突破：早期的入场信号

第二部分

Early entry is defined as a large price movement in one direction within the first five minutes after the　open of the daily session. A study of early entry is essentially a study of price action, and the type of price

action that takes place on early entry shows that participants are urgent about entering the market. It is a　distinct recognition of either a profitable or dangerous situation.

早期的入场信号，可以被定义为在开盘后五分钟内在一个方向上出现了大幅的波动。研究早期的入场信号，其实是研究价格行为，这种价格行为显示了投资者入场的迫切性。交易信号是否发生在早期，明确清晰地将交易信号划分为两类：有盈利潜力的或是危险的。

It should be noted that directional moves of this nature are relatively rare and may occur only 10% of the　time. Most days (70% to 80%), prices exhibit rotation or choppy action and the first five to 10 minutes of

trading are sluggish and directionless without a clear movement away from the opening range

但需要指出的是，这种早期的入场信号并不常见，只有10%的交易日可能发生早期的入场信号。绝大多数交易日（70%-80%），价格波动呈现无序或不连贯的走势，开盘后的5-10分钟并无方向。

The early entry price action is ideal when using an opening range breakout for entry. An opening range　breakout is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range. The open should　act as one extreme of this range.

使用开盘区间突破交易时，早盘发生的入场信号是最理想。开盘区间突破发生，是指开盘价上、下一定预设范围的突破。开盘价，是计算这种预设波动范围的起点。

Two versions

I have observed two types of early entry. The characteristics of Type 1 (Figures 1 and 2) are as follows:

The first five minute time period has a larger range than normal. ("Normal" is roughly defined as the　average of the preceding 10 days' first five-minute ranges.)

两种模式

我观察过两种早期入场信号的模式。第一种的特征如下（图1、图2）：

第一个5分钟K线出现了超出“平常”的大幅波动（“平常”，是指前10天第一个5分钟K线的平均波动范围）

The opening of the day is on one extreme of the five-minute bar and the close of the five-minute bar is on　the opposite extreme. The second five minutes shows an equal thrust in the direction of the first

five-minute period.

开盘价，是第一个5分钟K线的一个价格极端位置，而收盘价则是反向的一个价格极端位置。第二个5分钟K线则延续了第一个5分钟K线的方向。

The Type 2 early. entry is extremely powerful and is characterized by an excessively large range in the　first five minutes, quite possibly bigger than the previous 20 days ' first five-minute periods (Figures 3 and 4).

An equal thrust in the next time period is difficult to manage, but a general drift in the direction of the　first five minutes is likely with an acceleration after further accumulation has occurred.

早期入场信号的第二型：这种信号特别有力，在第一个5分钟K线上发生了极端的波动，可能超出过去20天中任何一天的第一个5分钟K线的波动幅度（图3、图4）。其后同等力度的波动难以预期，但经过市场力量积蓄盘整后，仍会延续与第一个5分钟K线方向相同的惯性趋势。

Absence of early entry and no clear getaway on an opening range　breakout calls for trading range action with a market generally　unable to trend.

未发生早期的入场信号或在开盘区间突破信号发生后未出现显著的移动，意味着市场并无主要趋势。

Trading early entry

One possible trading scheme is to use an opening range breakout entry technique each day, anticipating　early entry. If ideal action does not occur within the first five to 10 minutes, cancel orders. In a defined

trend or running market, use early entry to verify the existing trend and then use any pullbacks of 3/8 to　1/2 of the existing daily range for another entry.

早期入场信号的交易

一种可行的交易计划是，每天都使用开盘区间突破交易模式，并预期早期的入场信号发生。如果这种理想的价格模式在开盘后5-10分钟内未发生，则撤单。在一个趋势明确、波动快速的市场上，使用早期入场信号可以验证市场趋势，也可以使用日内波动回撤38%、50%的位置，来构建另一种入场信号。

An open that occurs outside the previous day's high or low, in most cases, sets up an intraday upthrust or　spring. These are top and bottom reversal patterns and tests show that on a move back into the previous

day's range by two ticks, the market has a 67% chance of continuing into yesterday's range and closing　beyond that point. This is excellent advance information and, when it moves as far as the early entry

extreme price, it shifts the momentum for the entire day's trade and, quite possibly, several days' trading　if a reversal pattern forms on the daily chart.

如果开盘价，在前一天的高低点范围之外，在绝大多数情况下将形成盘中的反转走势。这些顶部、底部反转的走势，可以用是否有重回前一天波动范围内的两根K线来验证。有67%的概率水平，市场会重回前一天的波动范围，并且收盘超出该水平。另一个极其有用的信息是，如果它移动到离开盘价更远的位置，而且日线图表支持的话，那么就可以持续几天的趋势反转行情。

Early entry failure

Of course, there are times when, even with a defined thrust, the market will not follow through and, in　fact, will sometimes reverse completely. This is defined as early entry failure (Figures 5 and 6) and is　associated with a momentum increase in the opposite direction of early entry.

早期入场信号的失败

当然，有时即使是最理想的早期入场信号发生，市场也并未延续趋势，甚至有时完全走反。这就是早期入场信号的失败（图5、图6），伴之而来的，是与早期入场信号相反方向波动的加强。

Momentum can be assessed by the range of the time unit (i.e., a 5-, 15-, 30-minute bar chart). An　increased range relative to the previous time unit(s) shows an increase in momentum. Ideally, this should　not happen and when it does, it usually indicates an early entry failure is occurring.

这种势头可以使用K线级别来依次衡量（比如5、15、30分钟K线图），后一个时间级别的波动范围扩大，会强化前一个时间级别的波动。最理想的是，这种情况不要发生，因为它通常意味着早期入场信号的失败已经发生。

As a rule, no countermove 5-minute bar should have a range larger than the first 5-minute bar. All such　larger bars should confirm early entry. In fact, any 5-minute bar against early entry that is relatively large

compared to previous bars which confirmed early entry will imply a shift in momentum and possibly　early entry failure.

作为一项规则，不应该存在比第一根5分钟K线波幅更大的相反方向的K线。任何波幅更大的K线都应当支持第一根5分钟K线的方向。事实上，如果出现相反方向、且波幅更大的任何一根5分钟K线，都将意味着早期入场信号的可能失败。

Neutral or confirming price action is crucial just after the early entry indication. When entry is taken on a　pullback, narrow range bars should have been present on the retracement. A countermove with a　momentum increase (i.e., larger bars) is a warning that failure is ccurring.

价格行为的确认关键期，是在刚刚发生早期入场信号的时候。当交易信号发生回撤时，要求回撤K线的幅度不能过大。一旦回撤K线波动扩大，就意味着早期入场信号的失败可能发生。

Type 1

Figure 1 displays a Type 1 early entry with a reasonably sized first 5-minute bar. Expansion occurred in　the second 5-minute period, showing a momentum confirmation at point a. A counter momentum

increase came later in the session at point b and again at c. Profits should be taken after an opening range　breakout entry when recognizable shifts in momentum occur like that at point b.

第一种类型

图1显示了第一种类型，第一个5分钟K线呈现出足够的幅度，并触发了早期入场信号。第二个5分钟K线延续了这种趋势，见A点。在点B、C反向的趋势开始出现，我们应当在点B获利了结，因为发生了趋势的转变。（译者注：此时，可能我们的跟踪止盈被触发）

Figure 2's action is similar to Figure 1, but to the downside. Momentum shifts occurred at points b and c,but ranges were not nearly as expansive as the first 10 minutes at point a. Note the action immediately

following point c: drifting prices with narrow range and a resulting move to new lows showed no　following for the long side.

图2和图1的价格行为是一样的，只不过是空头信号。趋势反转发生在B、C，但是其幅度没有像开盘前10分钟的点A那么大，注意在点C之后，价格走势变得收窄徘徊，最终重拾跌势。

Type 2

Figure 3 shows a Type 2 early entry in T-bonds with good follow-through in the second five-minute　period at points a. An approximate 50% retracement of the established range then followed to 7623

without any visible momentum shift.

第二种类型

图3显示了早期入场信号的第二种类型，并且第2个五分钟K线很好地延续了趋势。在没有明显可见的趋势转折前提下，T债券大概回撤了接近50%，至7623点。

Accumulation began at that point, evidenced by the successively higher pivot lows on line b. At point c,an expanding 5-minute bar to the upside was the first indication of an upcoming price advance. Barscontinued to expand on the run without counterdirectional bar expansion for the day.

就在那个点上，在支撑线B获得有效验证支撑作用后，价格开始加速，一根扩展的五分钟K线拉开了上升趋势的序幕，并且其后全天都没有出现明显的相反方向运动。

Figure 4 shows similar action, but thrust occurred persistently in the 15 minutes following early entry at　point a. Accumulation occurred at higher levels, line b. The lows in the accumulation area approximately

retraced 3/8 of the established range and momentum dropped on the countermove.

图4显示了同样的价格行为，但是在A点突破后的15分钟内，价格保持了惯性运动。在更高的水平线B上发生了38%的价格回撤，其后再无相反方向的运动发生。

Early entry failure

Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate early entry failure. Figure 5 shows a slight loss of momentum in the second　5-minute period, but still is a valid Type 1 early entry. The wide range countermove at point b showed

trouble and the resulting inability of the market to rally with further shows of momentum at points c and　d shifted daily bias to down.

早期入场信号的失败

图5、图6显示了早期入场信号失败的情况。尽管图5在第二根5分钟K线上力度不足，但仍然是一个有效的早期入场信号第一型。相反方向的运动开始于点B，并且在点C、D市场彻底反转。

In Figure 6, a Type 2 early entry occurred with immediate reversal in the second 5-minute period. Price　action should not fall back into the first 5-minute bar as quickly as it did here. The penetration of the

early entry extreme price in the first 5-minute bar at point b with an increased range actually set up a　good sale with a risk of one tick over point b's high. Momentum increased again after b.

图6,第二种类型的早期入场信号，在第2个五分钟K线上就立即反转，价格迅速运动并不在返回第1个五分钟K线的位置。在点B，实际上聪明理解失败信号的方式，是其实这是一个抛空的最佳时机，止损位可以设在点B的最高价，在点B之后，下跌势头持续增长。

Understanding the general nature of the market allows the trader to define a strategy in accordance with　the early action. A clear early entry and opening range breakout should not be faded. They suggest a

one-directional move is coming up.

理解市场的主要形态，有助于一名交易员明确一种基于早盘价格行为的交易策略。一个清晰的早期入场信号，结合开盘区间突破，永远不会退色，它预示着一个即将到来的单边趋势。

Absence of early entry and no clear getaway on an opening range breakout calls for trading range action　with a market generally unable to trend. When trading is defined, one can anticipate reversals throughout

the session.

如果没有早期入场信号，也没有清晰的开盘区间突破交易信号，意味着市场并无趋势运动，在交易过程中可以预期反转回撤的到来。

Opening Range Breakout

Part 3

In the opening range breakout technique, the heralds of an upcoming trend day are often inside days,narrow range days and hook days (see Stocks & Commodities, September and October 1988). I also have run across a new concept that categorizes price action and generally produces trending activity the next day.

在开盘突破交易实战技巧中，预示趋势行情即将到来的，往往是内部日、窄幅波动日、出击日（详见《股票与商品》，1988年9月、10月刊）。我还对不同的价格行为进行了分类，它们往往会导致第二天的趋势行情。

I call it Doji Lines. Doji is a Japanese word describing a comparison between the open and the close of the daily session. It is described in a book, The Japanese Chart of Charts by Seiki Shimizu.A Doji Line is a day that shows a very small difference between the open and closing prices (Figure 1).

"Very small" is a relative term but, through observation, I have attached quantities to this open-to-close difference to meet the need for definition.

十字星K线，它是一个日本名词，用于描述开盘价与收盘价对比的情况。在一本名为《日本蜡烛图技术》书中有描述。十字星，就是指开盘价与收盘价非常接近。通过观察，我可以找出很多十字星的例子，以代替定义。

In Figure 1, the left-hand bar is what a Doji Line looks like on a vertical bar chart; the right-hand bar is how it is displayed by Shimizu. In this case, the close was less than the open, so the open-to-close range is displayed in black. If the close had been above the open, the box would have been clear.

Figure 2 displays the Doji with a hypothetically defined narrow range day at point "a." We'll define narrow range day in a moment, but for now suffice it to say that the action following point "a" represents a trend day.

图1，左边的那根K线，就是十字星的经典图形（译者注：美国线），右边的那根K线，是史蒂夫.尼森演示的十字星（译者注：日本蜡烛图）。在这个例子中，收盘价低于开盘价，所以着色为黑色，如果收盘高于开盘，则实体是空心的。

图2，显示的是如果在点A为窄幅的波动日，十字星K线的情况，接下来的交易日，则是一个趋势日。

Market tests

The Doji Line is said to indicate market indecision. It is said that these lines precede market turning points. A trader should look closely at the movements that follow the Doji Line and be ready to enter the market aggressively once subsequent price action gives a clear indication of the market's direction.

十字星，说明市场在犹豫。同时也说明市场在期待方向。当一名交易员发生十字星后，一旦价格行为呈现清晰的市场方向，应当积极地介入。

Logically, the opening range breakout technique discussed in the September issue of S&C would seem a valid means of determining the direction of price action after a Doji. A Doji also is similar to a neutral or non-trend day in the Market Logic principles. In fact, Peter Steidlmayer, formulator of the Market Logic

school of thought, suggests after a non-trend day to go with initiating activity much like the suggestion for strategies after a Doji Line. I suggest taking opening range breakout trades after various congestion patterns.

在十字星后，介入开盘区间突破的技巧，在九月份发行的《股票与商品》杂志上讨论过，事实上，这与市场逻辑理论的创始人彼得的观点有异曲同工妙。彼得建议在一个无趋势日之后，介入价格启动行为。我则建议在多种价格模式后，介入开盘区间突破交易。

I have tested T-bonds, S&P and soybean markets using a definition for the Doji Line and a subsequent trade taken a given amount off the open. Figures 3, 4 and 5 show these results along with a comparison of price moves off the open on days when a Doji may or may not be present.

I also have defined the narrow range day by the particular open-to-close point values (R1) listed in Figures 3, 4 and 5 rather than a relationship to the previous day's range. This allows a comparison between the results of a Doji Line and the results of narrow range day.

我测试过国债、标普、黄豆期货市场，按照十字星的定义，在开盘价出方向后介入交易。图3、4、5显示了开盘区间突破交易的结果，前一个交易日，有的存在十字星，有的没有。

我还特别定义了窄幅，并不是指的比前一日的波幅对比，而是在图3、4、5中指出的开盘距离收盘的点位差额。这样还可以就窄幅和十字星的结果进行比对。

Results were impressive and confirmed the conclusion that a Doji Line precedes reversal action or trend-type action. In some cases, percentages increase by 20%-30% in favor of a trade after a Doji Line.

The tests of narrow range day defined by a particular point value also were conclusive. I chose the point value for the narrow range day by observation, which is different than categorizing congestion by identifying a day in which the range is narrower than any of the previous six days — an NR7 day in my terminology. Defining a narrow range by point value allows for entry on a day that is not necessarily narrower than the preceding day.

结果验证了十字星，对于价格反转与趋势行情的预测价值。在一些例子中，出现十字星后，价格上涨了20%-30%。

关于窄幅波动日的测试也是有效的。我选择了依据开收盘点差，而非依据日内波动幅度是否低于前六个交易日。它验证了只要某一天开盘与收盘间的点差是窄幅的，就是有效的，没有必要非得要求其日内波幅低于前面的交易日。

The abbreviations used in Figures 3, 4 and 5 follow a common format. For example, in Figure 3 the left-hand column reads: 8 tick Doji; Open minus 16 ticks; Sell. This means the difference between the open and close of yesterday is less than 8 ticks (8 tick Doji); today the market dropped 16 ticks below the open (Open minus 16 ticks) where a sale was taken (Sell) with an assumed exit on the close of the same day.

The results in this particular case show 203 trades, 71% of which were profitable. The average winning trade was $343 and the average losing trade was $289. The ratio between the average winner and the average loser was 1.18-to-1, with gross profits before commissions and slippage at $32,985.

在图3、4、5中我们的表式中使用了简写。例如，表3中的最左边的一列中：8点的十字星、开盘-16点、卖出。意即：昨天开盘与收盘的点差小于8点；今天的开盘价之下16点，卖出。在这个例子中，共有203笔交易，其中71%是盈利的。盈利交易的平均每笔盈利343美元，亏损交易的平均每笔亏损是289美元。平均盈亏比为1.18：1，在不计佣金与滑点的前提下，毛盈利为32985美元。

Note that in the fourth pattern in Figure 3 the definition for the narrow range reads as "R1 less than 20."This means yesterday's range was less than 20 points. Throughout the figures, I also designate a Doji with a point value such as "7 Doji" or "50 Doji."

As you look through the figures you will see many very profitable trading systems. Remember that slippage and commission were not calculated in the results, so an immediate systematic implementation of these techniques could be disappointing. As in any breakout system, the slippage will be greater than other techniques because the order is executed with the momentum of the market. Other stops could be

present at the time of entry and cause bad fills.

注意图3中的第四种模式是关于窄幅的，"R1 less than 20."是指价格昨天的波动幅度小于20点。贯穿所有的图中，我也使用类似于“七点的十字星”或“50点的十字星”去描述十字星的点值。在这些图表中，你可以看到很多有利可图的交易系统。记住：佣金和滑点并没有被计入，所以实际实施起来可能会令人失望。正如所有的突破系统一样，滑点可能比其它技巧更重要，因为你是在追市。进入后，止损的设置是必须的，以防范交易失败。

My premise is that one's judgment has to enter into the trade and the way to do this effectively is through practice and logical integration of market knowledge.

我的意思是交易决策或让交易更有效，需要基于对市场知识的逻辑整合及实践。

Implementation

I am attempting to define the market's nature so as to trade effectively. I am not a system trader. My premise is that one's judgment has to enter into the trade and the only way to do this effectively is through practice and a logical integration of the market knowledge at hand. The Doji Line tests provide objective。

实施

我试图揭示市场原理以使得交易更加有效，但我并不是一个系统交易者。我的论述前提是一旦你做出交易决策，它必须基于实践经验和某种市场知识的逻辑提炼。十字星，就是其中的一例。

information over long time spans.

透视长期图表中的信息

In Figure 6, points 1 thru 7 illustrate seven, 50-point Doji Lines followed by 100-point moves above the open the following day. It is apparent from the chart that some days are more successful than others.

在图6上，点1-7,50点差值的十字星，紧接着就是从第二天的开盘价移动100点。这表明，日线级别的图表比其它级别的更有效。

Profit-taking techniques and an excellent understanding of intraday market action are necessary to get the best the results.获利出场的技巧和对盘中市场行为的深刻理解，有助于取得最好的效果。

Comparing percentage profits for days preceded by a Doji and narrow range with that of a normal day without a Doji and narrow range proves interesting. A complete study of T-bond moves away from the open on every day during ten 28-year test periods showed that on a normal day, a sale 16 ticks below the open was 56% profitable; with Doji 8 it was 71% profitable. On a normal day, a buy 16 ticks above the open was 60% profitable; with a Doji 8 it was 66% profitable.

比较一下前一个交易日是十字星或窄幅波动日，以及没有出现上述情况的普通交易日，在获利概率上的差异，是非常有趣的一件事情。在一个普通的交易日，国债期货10个28年图表测试表明，开盘价以下16点做空，有56%的成功概率，而前一个交易日如果是十字星，则有71%的成功概率。在一个普通交易日，开盘价以上16点做多，有60%的成功概率，而如果前一个交易日是十字星，则有66%。

On any day in the S&P that a buy was taken 160 points above the open, the trade was 58% profitable;with a Doji 50 and open-to-close range (R1) less than 200 it was 63%. On any day, a sale 160 points　below the open was only 49% profitable; with a 50 Doji and RI less than 200 points a sale was 67%profitable Ñ quite an improvement.

在标普上，开盘价以上160点做多，有58%的成功概率，而前一个交易日如果是低于200点的十字星，则有63%的成功概率。开盘价以下160点做空，有49%的成功概率，而前一个交易日如果是低于200点的十字星，则有67%的成功概率。

The soybean market provided some of the most startling results. On any day that a buy was taken 10cents above the open it was 60% profitable. With a Doji 5 it was 64% profitable. On a sale any day 10cents below the open it was 63% profitable; with a Doji 5 it was 67%. A Doji 5 with the daily range less　than 10 cents improved the success rate to 76%.

黄豆市场也一样，结果更惊人。开盘价以上10点做多，有60%的成功概率，而前一个交易日如果是低于5点的十字星，则有64%的成功概率。开盘价以下10点做空，有67%的成功概率，而前一个交易日如果是低于200点的十字星，则有76%的成功概率。

In an effort to adequately define trend days, I always look for other ways to define price action. The Doji　Line and narrow range day are excellent additions to existing indicators. These little-known market　concepts reiterate the need for an open mind and an understanding of all available market concepts that　can help the trader. As you can see by the test results, Doji Lines and a defined narrow range day are

logical additions to market concepts.

为了更有效地抓住趋势日，我一直在寻找其他价格行为的规律。十字星和窄幅波动日，是一种非常有用的补充。这些鲜为人知的概念，重申了开盘价的重要性并且有助于交易员理解任何市场的行为。正如你所看到的测试结果，十字星和特指的窄幅波动日是市场概念的有益补充。

Opening range breakout

Part 4

开盘区间突破

第四部分

Opening range breakout is a trade in which entry is taken at a predetermined amount above or below　the opening range. I've set this predetermined amount (the "stretch") through observation. (See Stocks &

Commodities, September 1988.) To trade the opening range breakout, a buy stop is placed above the high　of the opening range an amount equal to the stretch and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the

low of the opening range. The first stop that is traded is your position.

开盘区间突破，是一种在开盘价上、下一定范围预设买、卖点的交易模式。我通过观察完成这种预设（详见股票与期货，1988年9月）。一个买进突破点，设置在开盘价的上方，同等距离的一个卖出突破点，设置在开盘价的下方，哪个方向先发生突破，那就是你的头寸。

An inside day is one in which the daily range is completely within the previous day's range. More　specifically, an inside day's high is less than the previous day's high and the inside day's low is greater　than the previous day's low.

内部日，就是指日内波动完全在前一天的波动范围内发生。更具体地说，就是内部日的高点低于前一交易日的高点，低点则高于前一天的低点。

Figures 1 and 2 demonstrate the inside day and the next day's opening range breakout technique. My　hypothesis is that inside days precede trend day activity and, consequently, successful opening range　breakouts. Figure 3 tabulates the results of this hypothesis in the Treasury bond, S&P 500, soybean andcattle markets.

图1、图2显示了内部日及后一天进行开盘区间突破交易的技巧。我假定内部日预示了趋势行为，因而导致了成功的开盘区间突破发生。图3显示了这种假定，在国债、标普500、黄豆、活牛市场的结果。

There were four tests per market with the only difference being the points of entry above or below the　open. For example, bond market tests were conducted on an entry 16 ticks above the open (open plus 16　ticks), 8 ticks above the open, 8 ticks below the open (open minus 8 ticks) and 16 ticks below the open.

关于这四个市场的测试，唯一的区别就是距离开盘价的突破点设置幅度预设不同。举例而言，国债市场的测试基于开盘上下16点、开盘上下8点。

In the next column are the results of trades taken from the entry point with an exit on the close of the　same day of entry. Stops were not used after and, if the market traded both above and below the opening　range the given amount, both a buy and a sell could be registered. This test provides an objective means　for determining if the inside day is actually preceding successful opening range breakouts and, therefore,

is one indicator of future trend days.

下一列则显示了自开盘突破点进入之后，持有至收盘的结果。如果开盘后既发生了向上突破，又发生了向下突破，则不使用止损点。测试表明，内部日预示了下一个开盘突破交易的有效性，因而它是下一个交易日是否是趋势日的重要指标。

I found it useful to compare the results of Figure 3 to the results of an opening range breakout taken on　any day regardless of the previous day's price pattern (Figure 4). In all cases except the S&P 500's moves　below the open and cattle's moves above the open, an inside day improved the percentage of profitable trades in the direction of the breakout improved, sometimes dramatically. Out of the 16 possible entry

points, only four showed lower percentages after an inside day. This means that 75% of the tests showed　improvement. I think this is conclusive.

我认为比较前一个交易日是否为内部日（图4），并比较开盘突破交易的绩效是非常有用的。在所有的例子中，除了标普500向下突破，活牛期货向上突破的交易外，所有的内部日都助于提高成功概率，有时是非常显著的。16个可能的入场点外，只有4个显示了内部日后较低的波动性水平，这就意味着75%的成功概率，我认为这很重要。

Figure 5 displays nine inside days. Notice the action following the inside day and close proximity of the　open of that day to one of the extremes, particularly numbers 1, 3, 8 and 9. On those days the open is　within one tick of the extreme with sizable range expansion.

图5显示了9个内部日，注意内部日及开盘、收盘非常接近的交易日，其后的价格行为，特别是1、3、8、9,在那些交易日，开盘价距离当天的极端价格都在1跳距离之内。

The bond and soybean markets show the best results on the trades after an inside day. I should add that　with the addition of a night session in the bond market some changes have occurred, primarily a general　lack of trend and a loss of volatility.

国债和黄豆市场显示了最好的效果，在内部日之后。我需要补充的是，在国债的夜盘，一些新情况发生，导致市场失去了波动性。

An analysis of price action is necessary when utilizing the opening range breakout in any situation.Ideally, on the day a trade is taken with this technique there should be no momentum increases against　the trade. The market should be able to maintain the direction of the original move off the open without　moving in the opposite direction at an accelerated rate. In the best cases, the previous half-hour low is not　violated in an up move and vice versa in a down move. Also, new highs should occur at least every hour　or new lows should occur every hour in a down move.

在任何情况下，分析价格行为对于应用开盘区间突破都是必要的。理想情况是，不能有与趋势相反方向的势头出现。市场应当保持最初的移动方向，并且没有相反方向的快速移动。最理想的情况是，在一个上升趋势中，不能击穿前半小时的低点，反之亦然。同样，在趋势方向上每一个小时都应当创出新高或新低。

My conclusion is that the tests do suggest that inside days are valid precursors of trending action and can　be integrated into a trader's philosophy.

我的测试结论是，内部日的确可以有效地预测趋势，并且应当集成到一名交易员的交易逻辑信念中去。
Opening range breakout

Part 5

开盘区间突破

第五部分

A trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening price of a given day is called an　opening range breakout (ORB).A narrow range four pattern (NR 4) is a day with a daily range that is　narrower than the previous three days' daily ranges compared individually. In my experience, trades using　the ORB technique on a day following an NR 4 pattern tend to coincide with trend day activity—and,consequently, successful ORBs.

依据在开盘价上、下一定预设价格范围的突破而进行的交易，被称为开盘区间突破（ORB）。一个窄幅波动日的走势，是指当天的日内波动幅度均小于之前三天的日内波动幅度（NR4）。根据我的经验，当NR4模式出现后，在下一个交易日使用ORB交易，往往会是成功的。

Figures 1 and 2 demonstrate an ORB on the day following the NR 4 pattern. The table in Figure 3 shows　the results of testing the relationship between the NR4 pattern and trending markets with this technique.action on the day of an ORB. There were four tests per market and the only difference between them was　the point of entry above or below the open. Trades were entered on a stop at the indicated level with an　exit on the same day's close.

图1、图2展现了在NR4之后的交易日，使用ORB交易的情况。图3的表格显示了在NR4模式与趋势市场的关系，我们一共测试了四个市场，唯一的区别是在开盘价上、下突破的点数预设值不同。所有的交易，均在预设的位置进入，以当天的收盘价平仓。

In 15 of 16 comparisons, ORB days following NR 4s have a higher　percentage of winning trades than the control group.

在16笔交易中的15笔，在NR4模式出现后的ORB交易，在对照比较中均呈现出了更高概率的盈利可能。

The results consistently exhibit trending activity following an NR 4 pattern. The number of trades was　high, indicating the frequency with which the pattern occurs. This pattern and a resulting move off the　open appears on average once in every eight to 10 market days. The win/loss ratio is not significant at 1:1, but gross profits were high given the frequency of the pattern.

结果显示了在NR4后市场趋势行为的一贯性。这种模式发生的频率也是经常性的，每八个到十个交易日中，就会有一次出现。盈亏比也并非1：1,在这种模式出现后的毛利润总是偏高。

In no tests did the frequency of profitable trades exceed 70%, yet all but two tests showed at least 60%　profitable trades. The best results occurred in the bean market. Cattle, with entries 25 points off the open　in either direction, showed surprising success. I say surprising because I had observed that cattle was not　as reliable as the other markets with this technique.

没有测试结果表明，获利比率会超过70%，但至少2个测试表明至少60%的获利概率。最好的测试结果是豆类、活牛，在开盘价距离25点的位置，无论哪一个方向的突破，都呈现惊人的成功。我说惊人，是因为我原来观察活牛市场在这种技术上，并不如其他市场那么可靠。

Figure 4 compares the percentage of profitable trades on ORB days following an NR 4 pattern with ORB　days whether or not they followed an NR 4 pattern. In 15 of 16 comparisons, ORB days following NR 4s　have a higher percentage of winning trades than the control group (control group data not shown in　Figure 3).

图4对比了是否在NR4模式之后使用ORB交易的盈利概率差异。在16例中的15例，在NR4模式后使用ORB交易，出现了更高的获利概率（在图3中没有列出对照组的相关数据）。

The only exception is buying 50 points above the open in the cattle market. But, this is probably not a　significant difference. At 50 points above the open, cattle produced 63% winning trades following an NR　4 and 65% on any day.

唯一的例外是在活牛市场上，开盘价50点以上的买进交易。但这个差异并不显著，在NR4模式出现后的ORB交易，获利概率是63%，在任何一个交易日使用ORB交易，获利概率是65%。

Although many patterns can be associated with trending, the results of the tests in Figures 3 and 4 are　very strong evidence that NR 4s have some immediate relationship with trending action.

尽管很多模式与趋势相关，但图3、图4的结果足以表明在NR4模式出现后，快速出现趋势行为是非常可能的。

Generally, there is a relationship between any narrow, directionless day and trending action on the　following day. The general principle behind this price action I call contraction/expansion. On a bar chart, this contraction occurs almost always just before a trend move, although there are times when a trend　move takes place without contraction.

一般说来，在一个无趋势的窄幅波动日之后，及其后出现趋势行为之间是存在相关性的。在这种价格行为的背后，我想总结的一种主要思想就是：收缩与扩张。在一张图表上，这种收缩往往发生在一个趋势运动之前，当然也有一些时候在趋势开始前并无收缩现象出现。

A word of warning about the tests. When commission and slippage are added, gross profits are reduced　dramatically. This does not compormise the intention of this report. As I previously stated, the intent of　all my testing is to define the market's nature and verify general market principles. If, in your testing, you　find a high percentage system (75%) with a win/loss ratio of more than 1: 1, you are beginning to

discover the market's nature.

关于这项测试还有一点需要注意，如果加上交易佣金与滑点，毛利润将大幅削减。正如我先前声明的，我的目的是在我的测试中试图发现市场规律和主要的市场理念，如果你发现了一种超过75%的胜率，且盈亏比远超1：1的高胜算交易系统，那将说明你开始发现市场规律.

Part 6

开盘区间突破

第六部分

Two price chart patterns — the inside day (ID) and the four-day narrowing range (NR 4) — have　proven to be reliable predecessors of trending action that can be profitably traded with an opening range　breakout (ORB) system. (See Stocks & Commodities, February and April 1989.)

两种价格模式，内部日（ID）和四天窄幅波动（NR4）已经预示了在开盘区间突破系统上可能取得有利的趋势交易机会。（详见《股票与期货》1989年2月、4月刊）

What happens to the predictive power of these patterns when they're combined? My research assumption　was that, because they were both individually successful, they would produce clearer ORB buy/sell　indications when combined.

当这些模式结合起来时，为什么出现了预示力量？我的研究表明，因为它们都是独立有效的，所以当结合起来后，ORB变得更加清晰有效。

I examined this assumption in several ways. First, I directly tested how the ID/NR 4 pattern affected ORB　trades entered at various points on either side of the opening range (Figure 1). Secondly, I compared the

percentage of winning trades taken after the ID/NR 4, ID and NR 4 patterns and on any day regardless of　whether or not a pattern existed (Figure 2).

我通过几种途径验证这种推测。首先，我直接测试ID/NR4是如何影响ORB交易的（图1）。然后，我对比了ID/NR4、ID、NR4、任何一天不管有无其中的一种模式存在，它们在ORB交易上的不同胜率表现。

ORB trades and patterns

An ORB is a trade entered at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range (the range of　prices that occur in first 30 seconds to 5 minutes of trading. The predetermined amount, or "stretch," is　the 10-day average of the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme to the open　on each day.

ORB交易及模式

开盘区间突破就是依据开盘价上、下预设一定价格范围的突破交易。（发生在开盘后前30秒至5分钟之间）这个预设值，就是前十天开盘价与较近的一个高低点之间差额的平均值。

（译者注：average(min(h-o,o-l),10))

Figure 1 provides evidence that the ID/NR 4 pattern has a positive　relationship with trending action.

图1提供的证据表明ID/NR4模式与其后的趋势行为积极相关。

To trade the ORB, place a buy stop above the high of the opening range an amount equal to the stretch　and a sell stop the same amount below the low of the opening range. The first stop traded is your position.

使用ORB交易，就是在开盘价上方，置一停止买入点，以同等的幅度在开盘价下方置一停止卖出点。第一个买卖信号被触发，那就是你的头寸方向。

Figure 3 demonstrates the ID/NR 4 pattern on a vertical bar chart when the market is rallying or　declining. An ID/NR 4 pattern occurs when the current daily range is narrower than the previous three　days' daily ranges compared individually (days l, 2 and 3) and the current daily range is completely　within the previous day's range (day 3).

图3演示了ID/NR4模式在一个美国线图表上的表现，当市场上升或下降。一个ID/NR4模式，是指当前K线的日内波动幅度小于前三天中的任何一天，并且当前K线的波动范围完全在前一天的波动范围之内。（译者注：DAY4的高点低于DAY3的高点，DAY4的低点高于DAY3的低点）

Analysis

分析

Figure 1 provides evidence that the ID/NR 4 pattern has a positive relationship with trending action. Note　the percentage profits in the T-bond market with entries taken at 8 ticks and 16 ticks above the opening　range. The percentage of winning trades for both is very high and entering 16 ticks above the open also　gives an extraordinary win/loss ratio of 2.34-to-1 during the test period from 1978 to 1986.

图1显示的证据表明，ID/NR4模式与趋势行为积极相关。注意在国债市场上，以开盘价上方8跳和16跳买入交易的成功概率。在1978年至1986年，双向的胜率都是非常高的，在开盘价上方16跳的进入，还提供了一个高达2.34：1的平均盈亏比。

The soybean market in both directions and the cattle market on the sell side also gave high-probability　results with winning trades in the 70% region during the test periods.

黄豆的双向与活牛市场卖方交易，都在测试期提供了高达70%左右胜率的可靠结果。

Figure 2 provides more evidence that the ID/NR 4 pattern precedes trending activity. In 15 of 16 tests, the　ID/NR 4 pattern showed a higher probability of success on an ORB than a similar ORB taken without　regard to whether a pattern existed or not. This suggests that the more defined the congestion area, the　better the chances it will be followed by trend day activity.

图2提供了ID/NR4模式预示趋势行为的更多证据。在16项测试中的15次，与简单的ORB交易相比，ID/NR4模式过滤后的ORB交易提供了更高的胜率。这说明越明确的信号、越可靠，在趋势日的交易更有机会获得成功。

It also verified the assumption that the ID/NR 4 would provide a better indication of trend day activity　than any of the patterns individually. Eight of 16 ORBs traded after the ID/NR 4 showed a higher　probability of success than any of the three other groups tested. Again, this would suggest the　contraction/expansion principle is valid, that there is a relationship between a narrow, directionless day　and trending action the following day. A larger price pattern ending with an ID/NR4 that has historically　carried a high percentage of winning trades is an ideal point of entry.

这同时也证实ID/NR4结合的模式与单个价格模式相比，可以提供对趋势行为更好的预测。在ID/NR4组合模式下，16笔交易中的8笔取得了更大的成本，与其他三组测试相比。重申一遍，这其实是对价格运动呈“收缩—扩张”理念的印证。这里有一种关系，窄幅波动日、无趋势日、其后的趋势日。在ID/NR4模式后出现的价格扩张行为，其实是提供了一个高胜算入场的理想交易机会点。

Part 7

开盘区间突破

第七部分

Bear hook is a day in which the open is below the previous day's low and the close is above the　previous day's close with a narrow range relative to the previous day (Figure 1). As implied by the name,there is a tendency for prices following a bear hook pattern to move to the downside.

熊爪模式是指某一天的开盘低于前一天的低点，但收盘却高于前一天的收盘，并且波动幅度小于前几天的波幅（图1）。正如它的名字，它意味着接下来的趋势可能向下。

Figure 2 tabulates how this downward tendency after the pattern manifests itself in different markets and　with a variety of opening range breakout (ORB) trades taken the day after the pattern appeared.

图2列表显示了在不同的市场中，使用开盘区间突破，在出现了这种模式之后的交易日，下降趋势的展开情况。

Figure 3 charts the bear hook patterns for December T-bonds. Notice the price action on the day　following the patterns and the market's tendency to place the open on the high of the day.

图3显示了熊爪模式在十二月国债期货上的应用。注意在这种模式出现后的价格行为，以及开盘价就是当天较高价格的倾向。

Very briefly, an ORB is a trade entered at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range (the　range of prices that occur in first 30 seconds to 5 minutes of trading). The predetermined amount, or　"stretch," is the 10-day average of the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme　to the open on each day.

很简单，开盘区间突破就是依据开盘价上、下预设一定价格范围的突破交易。（发生在开盘后前30秒至5分钟之间）这个预设值，就是前十天开盘价与较近的一个高低点之间差额的平均值。（译者注：average(min(h-o,o-l),10))

In the perpetual tug of war between market timers and value players, the timers win many battles but the value players win the war.

在择时交易者与价值投资者之间的PK中，择时交易者总会赢得若干场战斗，但最终战争的胜利者属于价值投资者。

The usual way to trade the ORB is to place a buy stop above the high of the opening range an amount　equal to the stretch and a sell stop the same amount below the low of the opening range. The first stop　traded is your position. (See Stocks & Commodities, September 1988) However, in this study, I found　there were times when it was better to fade the move at the stretch point. That is, there were times when　it was better to sell the higher stretch point or buy the lower stretch point. Figure 2, therefore, has both　buys and sells at the breakout points.

ORB的一般使用方式是在开盘价上方，置一停止买入点，以同等的幅度在开盘价下方置一停止卖出点。第一个买卖信号被触发，那就是你的头寸方向（详见《股票与期货》，1988年9月版）。然而，在这项研究中，通过削减买卖点预设值，我发现有很多更好的交易机会。也就是说，卖在更高点或买在更低点，因而图2既有买进、又有卖出。

As a result, 13 of the 16 ORB trades tested after a bear hook pattern were profitable sales and only three　were buys. The bond market during this test period (1978-1986) was particularly conclusive with　high-percentage sales on moves below and above the open.

作为一个结果，在16笔开盘区间突破交易中，其中的13笔是在出现熊爪模式后出现的，它们是卖出交易，只有3笔是买进交易。国债市场在测试期间（1978-1986年间）表现出了高比例的卖出交易。

These results indicate that the pattern is not valid for a bi-directional trade and should be pursued only to　the downside. (One exception would be a gap above the bear hook day with a move above the open and　the market's holding the gap through mid-session, but this is from tests I've not yet reported here.)

这项测试表明，熊爪模式并不适合一个双向交易的市场，而更适合下跌趋势市场。（有一个例外，如果在熊爪模式后出现了向上的跳空缺口，应当在盘中抓住这样的交易机会，这也是依据我的另一项测试）

The S&P market was the only one showing gross profits high enough on the buy side to consider going　long. The tremendous upward bias in the data throughout the test period caused this result. Otherwise, the　only other market to show a profitable buy was cattle on the open plus 50 points, but gross profits there　were only $80.

标普市场是唯一显示足够的毛利润于多头交易一侧的市场，在测试期间上升趋势明显是导致这一情形的原因。另外，活牛市场的多头交易是唯一的另外一个可以盈利的市场，开盘价+50点，确认向上突破，但毛利润只有区区80美元。

The bear hook pattern clearly does not support the general concept that, on any given day, the market　tends to continue in the same direction as its initial move off the open. Given no other information other　than the open and the initial move off the open, traders unaware of the bear hook pattern would assume　continuation. The bear hook, therefore, is essential knowledge because recognizing the exception to a

general rule can help the trader save money.

熊爪模式，显然不支持这样的观点：在任何一个交易日，市场一定会朝向最初它离开开盘价的方向，延续趋势。如果没有其他的信息，如果交易员没有认识到熊爪模式，他可能会默认这种延续。因而，熊爪模式提供了这种ORB的例外，并且可以减少交易员的损失。

In summary, use bear hook days for ORB trades to the downside. This pattern provides another reference　and filter for the ORB technique. When trading, in general, do not go against a high percentage bias　especially when that bias also favors the intermediate-term trend.

总之，熊爪模式是用于交易下降趋势中的ORB系统策略的。这种模式为ORB交易技术提供了另一种过滤。当你从事交易时，不要违背高概率事件的倾向，尤其是当这种倾向同时也意味着中期趋势时。

Part 8

开盘区间突破

第八部分

The bull hook pattern, as suggested by its name, is a bullish indication and, in most cases, will be　followed by a price move to the upside on the day or days following the hook. However, as you will see　from the tests I ran, this is not always the case.

牛角模式，正如它的名字，在这种模式出现的当天或其后的交易日里，价格将呈上升趋势。当然，你将要看到的我的测试表明，情况也并非总是这样。

A bull hook day (Figure 1) opens above the previous day's high and closes below the previous day's close　with a narrowing range. Tests of opening range breakout (ORB) trades taken the day following the bull　hook pattern are shown in Figure 2.

图1的牛角模式，开盘明显高于前一天的高点，收盘却低于前一天的收盘，并且呈窄幅波动。图2则显示了在牛角模式的后一天，使用开盘区间突破的交易情况。

A bull hook day opens above the previous day's high and closes　below previous day's close...

牛角模式，就是开盘高于前一天的高点，收盘却低于前一天的收盘。

An ORB trade is entered at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range (the range of　prices that occur in first 30 seconds to 5 minutes of trading). The predetermined amount, or "stretch," is　the 10-day average of the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme to the open　on each day. (See Stocks & Commodities, February and April 1989.)

开盘区间突破就是依据开盘价上、下预设一定价格范围的突破交易。（发生在开盘后前30秒至5分钟之间）这个预设值，就是前十天开盘价与较近的一个高低点之间差额的平均值。（详见《股票与期货》，1989年2月、4月版，译者注：average(min(h-o,o-l),10))

The orthodox way to trade the ORB is to place a buy stop above the high of the opening range an amount　equal to the stretch and a sell stop the same amount below the low of the opening range. The first stop　traded is your position.

ORB的一般使用方式是在开盘价上方，置一停止买入点，以同等的幅度在开盘价下方置一停止卖出点。第一个买卖信号被触发，那就是你的头寸方向。

Note in this article that I tested both buys and sells at　either end of the stretch. For example, the S&P 500 open minus 80 points is a good place to buy, not sell.However, if we trade open minus 160 points, a sell-stop should be hit.

注意在这篇文章中，我既测试了买，又测试了卖。比如，标普500开盘价减去80点，是一个很好的买点，而不是卖点。然而，如果是标普500减去160点，则是一个很好的卖点触发价。

The results in Figure 2 show a bias to the upside after the pattern. Eight of the 16 trades were profitable　as buys, but the most conclusive evidence of an upward bias after the bull hook was the amount of gross　profits—$30,051 on the buy side and $7,854 on the sale side. In contrast, the bear hook pattern (S&C,June 1989) showed cumulative profits of $41,768 on the sell side and $13,728 on the buy side.

图2的结果显示了这种模式出现后的趋势上升倾向。16笔交易中的8笔是在买方获利的，但最重要的证据是在牛角模式出现后，买进交易的毛盈利总额为30051美元，而卖出交易只有7854美元。与此相反，在熊爪模式出现后，买进交易的毛盈利总额只有13728美元，而卖出交易却有41768美元的毛盈利总额。

It should be noted that the bull hook cattle result—a 78% profit on a 25-point move above the open—is　extraordinary and one of the best buy results I have seen in that market, particularly with a reasonably　high win/loss ratio of 1.32:1.

值得注意的是，在牛角模式出现后，在活牛市场上（译者注:哈哈）在开盘价以上25点进行开盘区间突破交易，有78%的胜率，这是我在这个市场上见过的最好的结果之一，而且盈亏比高达1.32：1。

Observe the market action the day after a bull or bear hook pattern appears in your charts. A quick move　off the open in the direction of the pattern's bias is the ideal. A move against the bias suggests caution.

观察在牛角模式出现后市场行为的表现。最理想的是开盘后快速的向上波动，违背这种倾向的波动，则提醒你注意危险。

The bull hook also is enhanced when the market opens lower on the day following the pattern. This　provides greater profit potential and goes along with a natural inclination of the market to fill the gap　between the open and the previous day's close. If the closing price of the hook day is traded, thencontinuation to the upside is likely.

牛角模式同样会被加强，如果市场在牛角模式之后，再次出现低开。这将为你提供更具潜力的盈利机会，因为市场有填补缺口的自然引力。如果牛角日的收盘价被超越，那么上升趋势很可能延续。

In general, the bull hook pattern does not display the consistency of the bear hook. Nevertheless, the test　results provide enough evidence of a predictable bias after the bull hook.

一般来说，牛角模式不像熊爪模式那样具有一致性。不过，测试结果仍然提供了足够的证据表明牛角模式后的上升趋势倾向。

It's also useful to integrate the bull hook with trend and price action studies. Ideally, if trend is up and the　open is lower than the close of the bull hook and early entry buying occurs, it's highly probable an ORB　trade will be profitable. You can trade more confidently, too, if an important angle of support is in the　vicinity of this type of price action.

在价格行为分析中，加入牛角模式是有效的。如果趋势是上升的，在牛角模式后的交易日出现低开，并且早期的买进入场信号发生，那么很有可能是一笔有利可图的ORB交易。如果附近有一个重要的支撑，那么你的交易将更具信心。

If you are using the Chicago Board of Trade's Market Profile reports, another thing to consider when　assessing the trade is whether a large buying extreme occurred near the open on any day beforehand. On　regular intraday price chart, this will look like a spike or a spring. Quite naturally, support will come int　the market at this point.

如果你使用芝加哥期货交易所的报告，另一件事情需要注意：前期是否在今天的开盘价附近有一个显示的相对阶段高点出现？在正常的价格图表上，这有点儿看上去像是一个阶段反转点。自然，在这个点上会给市场带来支撑。

With the examples presented in this series thus far, you should be able to test the ORB concept on　tradeables of your choice. I believe there is good evidence that you will find profitable combinations to　trade.

迄今为止，我们完成了一系列例子的讨论，你可以根据你的选择，在实战中应用ORB交易。我相信你一定可以在实证中，成功发展ORB组合交易策略！

（译者注：我完全不同意托比在第七、第八部分，关于熊爪、牛角模式的论述，根据我个人的测试结果表明，这两种模式纯属无稽。）

xuexi

回复 1# 龙听


    学习

Thanks

XUEXI

学习