标普500指数创1987年以来最大1月涨幅

英国《金融时报》 彼得•韦尔斯 报道
2019.02.01 12:00
由于美联储(Fed)温和加息前景以及市场对美中贸易谈判乐观态度的安抚，美国股市大幅上涨，录得40多年来的最佳1月表现。

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500) 1月上涨7.9%，是自1987年以来的同期最佳开局，也是其有史以来的十大1月涨幅之一。这还是自2015年10月以来该基准指数的最大单月涨幅。

这意味着从去年12月9.2%的下跌——自1931年以来最大的12月跌幅——中强劲反弹，但并没有使指数回到11月份2760.17点的收盘水平。

据英国《金融时报》的数据，就反弹而言，这是标准普尔500指数在12月下跌后创下的第四大涨幅（自1928年以来12月份只有24次下跌）。

股市在12月26日开始回升，去年最后一个季度的抛售使得标普500指数在平安夜当天步入熊市。自那时起，标普500指数上涨了15%。

在本周的政策会议上，美联储官员对今年年初给出的安抚性评论做了更为正式的表达，政策制定者承诺以“耐心”方式对待进一步加息，并发誓采取灵活的方式来缩减央行的数万亿美元的资产负债表。

去年末季，市场担心美联储仍未达到“中性”利率（即既不会阻碍也不会促进经济增长的利率），而且需要维持较快的加息步伐，从而导致了抛售。

加息前景尤其令所谓的成长型股票（比如科技股）承压。苹果(Apple)和亚马逊(Amazon)等大公司警告投资者，它们关键的假期销售季可能不像分析师预期的那样出色，使这些公司的压力进一步加大。

对该行业的挥之不去的担忧可能有助于解释科技股在此次反弹期间的表现，然而，随着澳大利亚矿业公司股票迎来自2016年11月以来的最佳周表现，投资者对其他领域增长型股票的兴趣显现出来。

整体而言，科技股相对于标普500指数的表现不如去年2月大幅下跌之后那样强劲。2018年1月，科技股曾带领市场创下当时的历史新高。

今年1月，五个行业实现两位数上涨，其中涨幅最高的是工业股，上涨11%。房地产、能源、非必需消费品和通信服务补齐了这个幸运的五重奏。

由于许多公司的季度业绩受到投资者的欢迎，工业股后发制人登上涨幅榜的首位。得益于布伦特(Brent)原油自2005年以来最好的1月表现以及西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)有史以来最好的1月表现，石油和天然气股票整个月都表现不俗。

对经济增长的更广泛担忧一直难以撼动，但投资者成功突破了这些担忧。中国国内生产总值(GDP)在2018年录得近三十年来最低增速，而投资者也在考虑近期美国政府关门对其经济活动的潜在影响。

市场也对华盛顿和北京可能在贸易谈判方面取得进展保持乐观态度。

投资者现在可以讨论“1月如此，全年都如此”的旧交易谚语是否在2019年同样有效，以及《股市交易者年鉴》(Stock Trader's Almanac)编制的显示上涨的“头五天”(First Five Days)指标是否预示着市场今年会有一个好行情。它们在去年并没有那么幸运——去年尽管1月份上涨，但全年最终以下跌收场。

译者/裴伴

以下为此文英文原文：S&P 500 notches biggest January rise since 1987

By Peter Wells
US stocks ruled off on their best January performance in more than four decades, soothed by a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve and optimism over US-China trade talks.

The S&P 500 rallied 7.9 per cent for the month, ranking as its best start to the year since 1987, and one of its 10-biggest on record. It was the benchmark’s biggest monthly gain since October 2015.

That represents a solid rebound from the previous month’s 9.2 per cent fall, which was the steepest December drop since 1931, but doesn’t quite bring the benchmark back to the 2,760.17 level it finished November at.

And as far as recoveries go, this is the S&P 500’s fourth-biggest gain following a negative December (of which there have only been 24 since 1928) on record, according to Financial Times calculations.

Stocks began their recovery on December 26, with the December quarter sell-off leaving the S&P 500 on the cusp of closing in a bear market on Christmas Eve. The benchmark has added 15 per cent since then.

Soothing commentary from Federal Reserve officials at the start of the year were made more official at their policy meeting this week, when policymakers pledged to take a “patient” approach towards further interest rate rises and vowed to take a flexible approach to running down the central bank’s multi-trillion dollar balance sheet.

Concerns the Fed was still some way away from reaching a “neutral” interest rate that neither hinders nor helps economic growth, and would need to maintain a brisk pace of rate rises, helped spark the market’s sell-off in the December quarter.

The prospect of higher rates weighed particularly heavily on so-called growth stocks, like tech, which came under additional pressure as big names such as Apple and Amazon warned investors their crucial holiday selling seasons might not be as stellar as analysts expected.

Lingering apprehension towards the sector may help explain the performance of tech stocks during this recovery, however signs of an appetite for growth-exposed stocks were on show elsewhere with Australian miners heading for their best weekly performance since November 2016.

As a group, the level of outperformance of the tech sector relative to the broader S&P 500 has not been as strong as it was following a previous sharp sell-off in February last year. In January 2018, they led the market to a then-record high.

So far this January, five sectors are on track for double-digit gains, led by an 11 per cent rise for industrials. Real estate, energy, consumer discretionary and communications services round out that fortunate quintet.

Industrials made a late charge to the top of the leaderboard as a number of companies’ quarterly results were well-received by investors. Oil and gas stocks had been well supported all month, helped by Brent crude having its best January since 2005 and West Texas Intermediate having its best January on record.

Broader concerns about economic growth have been hard to shake, but investors have managed to grind through them. Chinese gross domestic product was shown recently to have risen in 2018 at its slowest pace in almost three decades, while investors are also weighing the potential impact on US economic activity from the recent government shutdown.

Markets have also remained optimistic Washington and Beijing can make progress on trade talks.

Investors can now debate whether the old trader adage of “as goes January, so goes the year” will hold in 2019, and whether a positive First Five Days barometer, popularised by the Stock Trader’s Almanac, also bodes well for the market. They were not so lucky last year, when stocks finished 2018 lower despite a positive January.