中美贸易谈判将在压力下启动

英国《金融时报》 詹姆斯•波利提 华盛顿 ， 韩碧如 北京报道
2019.01.07 12:00
美中贸易谈判代表在本周的新一轮贸易谈判中面临着越来越大的压力，要求他们做出妥协，因为金融市场波动加剧和对经济严重放缓的担忧给全球经济造成了冲击。

美国官员代表团将于周一在北京会见中国官员，进行为期两天的讨论——这将是自唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统和习近平主席去年12月在阿根廷20国集团(G20)峰会期间达成贸易停火以来，两国官员首次面对面会谈——3月2日前达成协议或者让关税升级的最后期限日益逼近。

美国代表团由美国副贸易代表杰夫•格里什(Jeff Gerrish)率领。此前，全球市场经历了异常动荡的一个月。对全球最大的两个经济体增长放缓的担忧令全球金融市场剧烈波动。自去年10月初以来，标普500(S&P500)指数已下跌13%。

代表团的成员还包括美国农业部、能源部和财政部的高级官员，这一迹象表明，与特朗普和习近平在布宜诺斯艾利斯的会谈相比，此次谈判的内容会更为具体。

对美国而言，谈判成功与否将取决于中国准备以多大力度购买更多的美国农业、制造业和能源产品，以及遏制知识产权盗窃和强制转让技术。

“相互确保摧毁的力量太强大，但会激励中美双方为达成某种协议而努力，”华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)高级研究员斯蒂芬妮•西格尔(Stephanie Segal)说，“他们希望获得全面胜利，如果不能的话，他们希望能宣布取得充分进展，以后再作打算。”

“如果我是他们，我会看一看中方表示愿意接受的美方要求清单，然后对这些要求作一个阐述，这样我就能宣告取得胜利，而不会看起来是我举手投降了，”一位前美国贸易官员表示。

中国希望华盛顿方面承诺不再提高关税，并取消某些商品的关税，因为中国希望逐步削弱美国的做法。

美国高级官员对12月份强劲的就业数据感到欣慰，其中包括制造业就业人数大幅增长，这一数据对美国经济前景疲弱的担忧有一定的缓解。

他们将苹果(Apple)上周发布的营收预警——iPhone生产商将主要原因归咎于中国经济放缓——解读为中国经济疲弱的征兆，而不是贸易战给经济带来的阵痛正在蔓延的迹象。

中国正努力应对因内需下降和贸易战而导致经济增长大幅放缓的局面。这种局面促使政府出台刺激措施，如向银行体系注资1170亿美元，进行基础设施投资，并敦促银行增加对小企业的贷款。

特朗普总统上周五仍对谈判持悲观态度，称美国在谈判中处于“非常有利的地位”，并补充称，如果不能达成协议，那也不是“世界上最糟糕的事情”。

译者/何黎

以下为此文英文原文：US trade negotiators head to China against gloomy backdrop

By By James Politi in Washington and Lucy Hornby in Beijing
US and Chinese negotiators are under mounting pressure to compromise in a new round of trade talks this week, as growing financial market volatility and fears of a bruising slowdown hit the global economy.  

A delegation of American officials will meet Chinese counterparts on Monday in Beijing for two days of discussions — the first face-to-face talks since President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed a trade truce at the G20 summit in Argentina last month — with a looming March 2 deadline to strike an agreement or see an escalation in tariffs.

The mission, led by Jeff Gerrish, the US deputy trade representative, follows a torrid month for global markets, which have been convulsed by concerns of a looming downturn in the world’s two biggest economies. The S&P 500 has fallen 13 per cent since the start of October.

Mr Gerrish will be joined by high-ranking officials from the agriculture department, energy department and treasury department in a sign that the talks are becoming more specific than they were when Mr Trump and Mr Xi met in Buenos Aires.

For the US, success will hinge on how far China is prepared to go to purchase more American goods in agriculture, manufacturing and energy, as well as curbing intellectual property theft and the forced transfer of technology.

“Mutually assured destruction is too strong but the incentives for both China and the US are to work towards some kind of agreement,” said Stephanie Segal, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank. “They are going to be looking for an outright victory, and if not they will want to declare sufficient progress to kick the can down the road.”

“If I were them, I would be looking at the list of US demands that the Chinese said they would be willing to accept, and clarifying those so I can declare victory and it doesn’t look like I capitulated,” said one former US trade official.

The Chinese want Washington to commit to not raising tariffs further and removing levies on some items, as it hopes to chip away at the US approach.

Senior US officials were comforted by a strong jobs report for December, including a significant jump in manufacturing employment which allayed some concerns about a weakening outlook.

They have interpreted last week’s revenue warning from Apple, which the iPhone maker largely blamed on the economic slowdown in China, as a symptom of Beijing’s weakness rather than a worrying sign of spreading economic pain from their trade war.

China is grappling with sharply weakening growth, led by lower domestic demand and the trade war, prompting the government to resort to stimulus measures, such as injecting $117bn into the banking system, investing in infrastructure and urging banks to increase lending to small businesses.

Mr Trump maintained his bearish approach on Friday, saying that the US was in a “very strong position” in the talks, adding that it would not be “the worst thing in the world” if an agreement were not reached.