美股创历史新高

英国《金融时报》 罗宾•威格尔斯沃思 纽约 ， 萨姆•弗莱明 华盛顿报道
2018.09.21 12:00
美国股市周四冲上历史新高，投资者忘却对国际贸易战不断升级的担忧，转而关注蓬勃发展的美国经济。

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)收盘上涨0.78%，领涨的板块包括今年以来推动股市大涨的科技股，以及对整体经济敏感的材料股和银行股。

道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)收盘上涨0.95%，创下历史新高，而科技股扎堆的纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)收盘上涨0.98%，逼近8月下旬达到的峰值。

尽管美国本周宣布对中国输美商品加征关税，但美国经济从特朗普政府的全面减税措施得到重大提振。还有越来越多的迹象表明，减税的利好正在转化为更强劲的经济扩张和更健康的企业盈利。

美国本周表示，将对2000亿美元中国输美商品加征10%的关税，而如果两国在今年底之前未达成一项贸易协议，将把加征税率上调至25%。中国随即宣布对价值600亿美元的美国输华商品加征关税。然而，这些关税并不像预期的那么严重，而投资者表示，更大的明朗度对市场是一个利好；市场往往最讨厌不确定性。

美国8月份就业增长和工资数据也好于预期，同时大企业联合会(Conference Board)的情绪指数显示，美国消费者和企业高管的信心都处于自2000年以来的最高水平。

“增长十分强劲，”摩根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)基金经理吉姆•卡隆(Jim Caron)表示。“我们看到更高的生产率和更多的商业投资，这意味着，当前大好形势不仅仅是财政刺激带来的一时振奋。”

据高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，今年企业将砸下创纪录的1万亿美元回购股票（此轮股市涨势的一大驱动因素），该行还指出，“有关资本支出消亡的传闻被夸大了”。

标普500成分股公司的投资在2018年头六个月增至3410亿美元，比去年同期增长19%。如果这种投资速度持续下去，今年美国企业将取得至少25年来最快的“资本支出”增长。

经合组织(OECD)周四发布的新预测显示，今年美国经济将扩张2.9%，高于2017年的2.2%。如果美国经济确实以此速度扩张，那将是自2005年以来最快的年度增速。

美联储(Federal Reserve)在下周三发布新的增长和通胀预测时，很可能会着重提到当前的强劲经济形势，同时可能上调短期利率四分之一点，至2%-2.25%的目标区间。

因此，投资者被迫重新评估他们对于美联储在2019年会继续加息的怀疑，这使10年期美国国债的收益率周四攀升至3.09%，为5月份以来最高水平，逼近七年高点。

对货币政策更为敏感的两年期国债收益率微幅升至2.8%，为10年高点。

译者/和风

以下为此文英文原文：US stocks hit fresh record on booming economy

By Robin Wigglesworth,Mamta Badkar,Sam Fleming in New York, in Washington
The US stock market vaulted to a new record high on Thursday as investors brushed aside fears over the escalating international trade war and instead focused on a booming American economy.

The S&P 500 index climbed 0.8 per cent by midday in New York, led by the technology stocks that have powered much of this year’s equity market rally as well as economy-sensitive sectors such as materials and banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose 1 per cent to hit a new record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite increased 1 per cent to trade close to its late August peak.

Despite the US imposing tariffs on China goods this week, the American economy has received a big fillip from the Trump administration’s swingeing tax cuts. Mounting signs also show that the windfall is translating into more robust economic expansion and healthier corporate earnings.

The US said this week it would impose 10 per cent tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, which would rise to 25 per cent if the two nations did not agree a trade deal by the end of the year. China in turn announced levies on $60bn worth of American goods. However, the tariffs were not as severe as expected, and investors said more clarity was a boon to markets that tended to loathe uncertainty.

Jobs growth and wage data were also better than expected in August, and the Conference Board’s sentiment indices indicate that consumer and corporate executive confidence is at its highest since 2000.

“Growth is strong,” said Jim Caron, a fund manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “We’re seeing higher productivity and more business investments, which implies that this isn’t just a sugar high from the fiscal boost.”

Goldman Sachs estimates that companies will shovel a record $1tn towards buying back their shares this year — a big driver of the stock market rally — but said “rumours of the demise of capital spending have been greatly exaggerated”.

Investments by S&P 500 companies increased to $341bn in the first six months of 2018, a 19 per cent rise over the same period last year. If this pace of investment is sustained, it would be the fastest growth of “ capex” in at least 25 years.

The US economy is set to expand 2.9 per cent this year, according to new forecasts from the OECD released on Thursday, up from 2.2 per cent in 2017. If the US economy does expand at that rate then it would be the fastest pace of annual growth since 2005.

This strength is likely to be highlighted by the Federal Reserve when it releases new growth and inflation projections next Wednesday, alongside a likely quarter-point increase in the target range for short-term interest rates to 2—2.25 per cent.

As a result, investors have been forced to reappraise their scepticism that the US central bank will continue to raise interest rates in 2019, pushing the yield on the 10-year US government bond to a high of 3.09 per cent on Thursday, the highest since May and within touching distance of a seven-year high.

Two-year Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, inched up to a 10-year high of 2.8 per cent.