: | : | :期货量化学习 | :期货量化 |
返回列表 发帖

油价攀升至四年高位

油价攀升至四年高位

英国《金融时报》 安吉利•拉瓦尔 伦敦 , 白艾德 台北报道
2018.09.25 12:00
在全球产油国决定不进一步增产,无视美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的要求后,油价周一升至每桶81美元以上的四年高位。

周末在阿尔及利亚举行的会议上,沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯及它们在欧佩克(OPEC,产油国卡特尔)内外的盟友拒绝在6月商定的产量基础上进一步增产。

美国对伊朗能源行业的制裁将于11月生效,但这些措施已开始打击该国的石油出口,因为买家担心受到金融处罚,已经减少购买伊朗石油。

“这是石油市场对‘欧佩克+’集团拒绝增加石油产量的回应,”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)的卡斯滕•弗里奇(Carsten Fritsch)表示。

布伦特(Brent)原油在伦敦尾盘交易时段达到每桶81.39美元的高位,当日上涨2.58美元,这是自2014年以来未见的水平,当时能源板块进入直线下落状态,原因是产量激增超过全球需求。

大宗商品交易商托克(Trafigura)的石油交易联席主管本•卢考克(Ben Luckock)周一在新加坡一个能源会议上表示,随着美国对伊朗制裁全面实施导致石油供应趋紧,布伦特原油明年初可能突破每桶100美元。

美国基准油价——西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)上涨1.71美元,在纽约午盘交易时段报每桶72.49美元,为7月以来最高水平。

对供应趋紧的担忧导致原油价格走高,特朗普敦促沙特及其欧佩克盟友提高产量以控制价格。

“欧佩克垄断集团必须把价格压下来!”特朗普上周四在Twitter上写道。在11月中期选举之前,美国官员担心原油价格上涨对国内燃料成本可能造成的影响。

2016年底,全球产油国同意每日减产180万桶,以使供过于求的市场恢复平衡。但在委内瑞拉政治动荡打击该国出口、而其他地方的生产也受到扰乱之后,产油国的实际减产幅度大得多。

供应缺口导致产油国在今年6月同意提高产量,使实际产量达到原始产量上限条款。这一决定周日得到维持,产油国部长们表示目前不需要在该水平基础上进一步增产。

沙特能源部长哈立德•法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)曾在6月表示,各国可以迅速向市场增加投放100万桶/日的产量。但这还没有完全实现,促使石油交易员和能源行业分析师质疑产油大国能够在多大程度上增产,以弥补伊朗石油出口的下降。

法利赫周日表示,他相信石油市场“供应充足”。他补充说,尽管价格上涨,但买家目前不需要显著更高水平的产量。

“最大的问题不在于产油国,而在于炼油厂,在于需求,”法利赫表示。但他补充说,如果出现任何供应短缺或市场意外,生产政策需要作出“响应”。

目前尚不清楚伊朗出口下降将变得多严重,这增强了石油市场的看涨情绪。自5月以来,伊朗石油日出口量已下跌50万桶以上,目前不到200万桶。

译者/和风

以下为此文英文原文:Oil climbs to 4-year high above $81 a barrel

By Anjli Raval,Edward White in London, in Taipei
Oil prices rose above $81 a barrel to fresh four-year highs on Monday after global producers decided against further output increases despite demands from US President Donald Trump for action to cool prices.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and their allies inside and outside the Opec cartel declined to announce additional increases to production beyond what had been agreed in June during meetings in Algeria at the weekend.

US sanctions on Iran’s energy sector are due to come into effect in November, but they are already beginning to hit the country’s oil exports as buyers reduce purchases of Iranian barrels for fear of financial penalties.

“This is the oil market’s response to the ‘Opec+’ group’s refusal to step up its oil production,” said Carsten Fritsch at Commerzbank.

Brent crude reached a high of $81.39 in late London trading, an increase of $2.58 on the day and a level not seen since late 2014 when the energy sector went into a tailspin after a surge in production outpaced global demand.

Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at commodity house Trafigura, told an energy conference in Singapore on Monday that Brent could surpass $100 a barrel early next year, as oil supplies tighten when US sanctions against Iran are fully implemented.

West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, increased $1.71 a barrel to $72.49 in midday New York trading, its highest level since July.

Fears of tighter supplies have sent crude higher and spurred Mr Trump to push Saudi Arabia and its Opec allies to raise production to keep prices in check.

“The Opec monopoly must get prices down!” Mr Trump wrote on Twitter on Thursday. US officials are worried about the impact higher crude prices may have on domestic fuel costs ahead of midterm elections in November.

In late 2016, global producers agreed to curb their output by 1.8m barrels a day to bring an oversupplied market back into balance. But countries cut their output by far greater levels after political turmoil in Venezuelan hit exports and disruptions affected production elsewhere.

The shortfall led producers to agree to raise output in June to bring production in line with the terms of the original output limits. This decision was upheld on Sunday, with ministers saying no further increases beyond this level were required at this time.

Khalid Al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said in June that countries could rapidly add 1m b/d of production into the market. But this has yet to fully materialise, prompting oil traders and energy sector analysts to question how much big producer nations could raise supply to compensate for the losses from Iran.

Mr Falih said on Sunday he believed the oil market was “adequately supplied”. Despite rising prices, he added, buyers did not require much greater levels of production at this time.

“The biggest issue is not with the producing countries, it’s with the refiners, it’s with the demand,” Mr Falih said. But he added that output policy needed to be “responsive” in the event of any supply shortages or market surprises.

It is still unclear as to how severe the drop in Iranian exports will be, adding to bullish sentiment in the oil market. They have already fallen more than 500,000 b/d since May to below 2m b/d.

论坛官方微信、群(期货热点、量化探讨、开户与绑定实盘)
 
期货论坛 - 版权/免责声明   1.本站发布源码(包括函数、指标、策略等)均属开放源码,用意在于让使用者学习程序化语法撰写,使用者可以任意修改语法內容并调整参数。仅限用于个人学习使用,请勿转载、滥用,严禁私自连接实盘账户交易
  2.本站发布资讯(包括文章、视频、历史记录、教材、评论、资讯、交易方案等)均系转载自网络主流媒体,内容仅为作者当日个人观点,本网转载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。本网不对该类信息或数据做任何保证。不对您构成任何投资建议,不能依靠信息而取代自身独立判断,不对因使用本篇文章所诉信息或观点等导致的损失承担任何责任。
  3.本站发布资源(包括书籍、杂志、文档、软件等)均从互联网搜索而来,仅供个人免费交流学习,不可用作商业用途,本站不对显示的内容承担任何责任。请在下载后24小时内删除。如果喜欢,请购买正版,谢谢合作!
  4.龙听期货论坛原创文章属本网版权作品,转载须注明来源“龙听期货论坛”,违者本网将保留追究其相关法律责任的权力。本论坛除发布原创文章外,亦致力于优秀财经文章的交流分享,部分文章推送时若未能及时与原作者取得联系并涉及版权问题时,请及时联系删除。联系方式:http://www.qhlt.cn/thread-262-1-1.html
如何访问权限为100/255贴子:/thread-37840-1-1.html;注册后仍无法回复:/thread-23-1-1.html;微信/QQ群:/thread-262-1-1.html;网盘链接失效解决办法:/thread-93307-1-1.html

返回列表