美国石油类股票终于开始反弹

原标题：美国石油类股票终于开始反弹

    中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价11月24日报道，今年美国石油和天然气市场经历了真正的大起大落，人们期待能以一个良好的态势结束这一波动。过去10天，石油类股票上涨了近16%，这对石油和天然气看涨人士来说，前景正越来越好。

    在这里要指出三个关键的看涨因素。

    首先，在过去几年中，由于巨大的供需不平衡，油气行业一直受冷落，而这种不平衡在疫情爆发后更加严重。事实上，试图预测熊市触底，在很大程度上来说是徒劳的，因为欧佩克+减产的积极影响很快就会被全球封锁导致大规模需求破坏的冲击所抵消。然而，最近的事态发展给那些乐观主义者带来了希望，即最糟糕的情况可能终于要过去了。目前，至少两种成功的新冠肺炎疫苗的利好消息标志着，抗击疫情的战斗出现了一个重大的转折点。

    两周前，辉瑞公司和BioNTech报告称，他们联合研制的疫苗BNT162b2，在44000名试验人员中证明了近95%的有效性，在65岁以上的群众中有效率达到94%。几天前，两家公司在最终分析中证实了这些数据。

    除了好消息外还有一个小小的警告:辉瑞的疫苗需要-94华氏度(-70摄氏度)至-109华氏度的运输温度才能保持疫苗的活性，这可能会造成重大挑战。

    不过Moderna公司称，其新冠肺炎疫情已显示与辉瑞疫苗类似的功效，且可以在更可控的2°C至8°C（36°至46°F）温度范围中保持稳定，这绝对是一个好消息。更令人鼓舞的是，该公司报告称，其疫苗的价格将分别为每剂25美元和37美元，具体价格取决于订购的数量，大致相当于普通流感疫苗的价格，从10美元到50美元不等。

    值得一提的是，欧盟可能会加快对辉瑞和Moderna疫苗的批准进程，这意味着它们将在几周内进入欧盟管辖范围内的主流分销渠道。欧洲正在经历第二次最大规模的新冠肺炎疫情，德国、波兰、法国和西班牙已再次实施封锁措施，以遏制疫情的传播。

    其次，有效的新冠肺炎疫苗在不断的研发出来。辉瑞和Moderna的疫苗都基于RNA技术，这种技术可以使生产和开发速度更快，而且能够实现快速适应。但mRNG是非常脆弱的，需要小心地冷藏和处理。好消息是，还有其他几种疫苗可能更适合更广泛的运输。

    阿斯利康和牛津大学报告称，根据剂量不同，他们的疫苗有效度为62-90%，不过比辉瑞或Moderna的疫苗更便宜，而且可以在更高的温度下储存，更容易被低收入国家获得。此外，CureVac公司的CVnCoV疫苗在5摄氏度或标准冰箱温度下可以稳定3个月。疫苗在室温下可以存储24小时。Sanofi和GlaxoSmithKline宣布，他们的疫苗可以在2℃-至8℃的温度下储存。强生公司也有一种疫苗正在研制中，如果成功，可在2℃-8℃的冷藏温度下稳定至少3个月，在-20℃下可存储长达2年。

    简而言之，新冠疫苗似乎并不缺乏，并且许多可能比辉瑞和BioNTech的疫苗更稳定。

    第三，油气行业被低估了。过去六年来，美国和全球能源行业已严重失宠，以至于该行业现在可能被严重低估。事实上，该行业目前的市盈率低于1，为约70年来的最低水平。

    相比较今年年初撼动整个行业的巨大供需失衡危机来说，这并不意味着什么，但现在的情况与以前大不一样了。过去几个月，欧佩克展示了令人钦佩的生产纪律，并将寻求保持这一成果以避免阻碍油价的复苏。

    而从长期油价前景来看，可能也不会太可怕。可再生能源的时代或许已经来临，但石油需求可能会持续增长，据欧佩克估计，到21世纪30年代末石油需求才会达到顶峰。诚然，如果有更多的政府效仿英国的做法，禁止汽油和柴油车上路，那么这些乐观的预测可能很快就会变成悲观的。但迄今为止，有迹象表明，只要这场全球疫情能够迅速得到控制，化石燃料行业可能至少还会在未来数年占据主导地位，而且前景相当乐观。

    王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

    原文如下：

    Oil Stocks Are Finally Bouncing Back

    This year has been a true rollercoaster ride for the U.S. oil and gas market, but it is increasingly looking to end on a high note.

    The sector is up nearly 16% over the past 10 days alone as the world moves closer to vanquishing one of mankind's biggest threats in modern history.

    The outlook keeps getting better for the oil and gas bulls.

    Here are three key reasons why the bulls are likely to have the upper hand going forward.

    #1. Covid-19 vaccines The oil and gas industry has been deeply out of favor over the past few years, thanks to huge supply/demand imbalances that only got much worse after Covid-19 struck. Indeed, trying to call a bottom on the bear market has largely been a fool's errand as one step forward (OPEC production cuts) was immediately met by several steps backward (massive demand destruction due to global lockdowns).

    However, the latest developments now offer hope to the incurable optimists that the worst might finally be in the rearview mirror for the industry.

    At least two successful COVID-19 vaccines now mark a major turning point in the battle against one of our biggest existential crises.

    Two weeks ago, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) reported that their joint mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, had demonstrated nearly 95% efficacy in preventing Covid-19 infections in ~44,000 test patients. A few days ago, the companies confirmed those numbers in their final analysis, including being 94% effective in those over 65 years old.

    The good news came with a small caveat though: Pfizer's vaccine needs a much cooler temperature of -94 degrees Fahrenheit (-70° C) and up to -109 degrees Fahrenheit for shipment for the vaccine to remain viable, which could pose a major challenge in some locations.

    So news that Moderna's (NASDAQ:MRNA) Covid-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, has demonstrated similar efficacy as the Pfizer vaccine but remains stable at more manageable temperatures of 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F), or roughly the same operating temperature of a standard home or medical refrigerator, for at least a month, was definitely great news.

    More encouraging: Moderna has reported that its Covid-19 vaccine will cost $25 and $37 per dose depending on the amount ordered, roughly in the ballpark of a common flu shot, which costs anywhere from $10 to $50.

    Even more encouraging news: The EU is likely to fast track approval for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, meaning they could enter mainstream distribution in its jurisdiction in a matter of weeks. Europe is experiencing the biggest second Covid-19 wave, with Germany, Poland, France, and Spain having gone back to lockdown in a bid to stem the spread of the deadly virus.

    #2. More vaccines in the pipeline Other than his never-ending tweetstorm, Trump has mainly kept a low public profile after losing to Biden in one of America's most divisive elections in modern history. But a few days ago, he came out and publicly accused Pfizer of delaying its Covid-19 vaccine ostensibly in a bid to ruin his chances at re-election.

    Well, guess what, it appears several other pharmaceutical companies are guilty of the same curious timing of their own--maybe even better--vaccines.

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are based on Messenger RNA technology, which is not only speedier to manufacture and develop but is also well-suited to rapid adaptation.

    Unfortunately, messenger RNA, or mRNA, is also delicate, requiring careful cold storage and handling that complicate distributions.

    The great news: There are several other vaccines that could be better suited for more widespread distribution.

    AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) and the University of Oxford have reported that their vaccine is 62-90% effective depending on dosage, but is cheaper than the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and can also be stored at higher temperatures making it more accessible for lower-income nations. The AstraZeneca candidate is an adenovirus-vector platform that gives people an inactivated virus to stimulate an immune response making it more stable than Pfizer and Moderna's "mRNA-based" vaccines.

    CureVac's (NASDAQ:CVAC) says its CVnCoV vaccine is stable for three months at +5 Celsius or the standard refrigerator temperature. The vaccine remains stable for up to ready-to-use room temperature for 24 hours.

    Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline's have announced that their two-dose recombinant protein vaccine can be stored between 2°C- 8°C.

    Johnson & Johnson also has a Covid-19 vaccine in the pipeline, which, if successful, could be stable at refrigerated temperatures of 2°C - 8°C for at least three months and up to two years at -20 °C.

    In short, there seems to be no shortage of Covid-19 vaccine candidates that are potentially even more stable than the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

    #3. Undervalued sector

    The U.S. and global energy sectors have been deeply out of favor for the past six years--so much so that the sector could now be significantly undervalued.

    In fact, the sector now trades at a price-to-book ratio below one, the lowest in about seven decades.

    That would not mean much in the face of the huge supply/demand imbalances that rocked the industry at the beginning of the year. But the situation is quite different now.

    Over the past few months, OPEC has demonstrated admirable production discipline and will be looking to maintain that trajectory to avoid derailing the oil price recovery.

    The long-term oil price outlook might not be too dire, either.

    The age of renewables might be upon us, yet oil demand could keep growing and only hit a plateau in the late 2030s as per OPEC estimates. Granted, those rosy projections might quickly turn gloomy if many more governments go the U.K. route and decide to ban petrol and diesel vehicles on their roads by the turn of the decade. But so far, indications are that the fossil fuel sector might have at least several more years of dominance as long as the global pandemic can be quickly brought under control--and the prognosis is quite good.