全球炼油业做好迎接动荡前景的准备

原标题：全球炼油业做好迎接动荡前景的准备

    中国石化新闻网讯 据安迅思休斯敦11月19日消息，由于汽油和其它炼油产品需求低迷，石油和天然气继续缓慢复苏，炼油行业正在为近期可能出现的动荡前景做准备。

    伍德麦肯兹公司炼油业务副总裁Alan Gelder在路透社组织的下游领导力论坛上表示:“我们预计，全球炼油行业的产能利用率只是将从2020年的新冠病毒疫情冲击中小幅回升。”

    德勤公司(Deloitte)最近的一项研究显示，今年一季度全球成品油消费量下降了近30%，预计2020年全年的消费量为9190万桶/天，比2019年下降8%。

    油价下跌导致炼油厂利用率下降，导致炼油营业收入和利润率下降，使炼油厂利用率回到上世纪80年代的水平。

    上世纪80年代，石油需求因前十年的高油价而崩溃，炼油行业经历了一段炼油产能大规模合理化调整的时期。

    由于各国应对新型冠状病毒大流行采取了封锁措施，以及欧佩克同时增产和降价，全球石油和天然气需求受到严重打击。

    当前航空燃油的需求依然疲软，美国的需求仍只有新型冠状病毒疫情爆发前水平的一半，因为许多人推迟了航空旅行。

    预计炼油产品库存要到2021年才会回落到正常水平。

    张春晓 摘译自 ICIS

    原文如下：

    Global refining industry braces for a volatile outlook

    As oil and gas continues its slow recovery due to lacklustre demand for gasoline and other refined products, the refining industry is bracing for what could be a volatile outlook in the near future.

    “We expect global refinery utilisation to recover only modesty from the Covid-19 [coronavirus] blows of 2020,” said Alan Gelder, vice president of Refining for Wood Mackenzie, in Reuter’s Downstream Leadership Forum.

    Globally, refined products consumption fell by almost 30% in Q1 and is projected to be 91.9m bbl/day in 2020, down 8% year on year, according to a recent Deloitte study.

    Lower prices have led to lower refinery utilisation and shifting yields, translating into lower downstream revenues and margins, bringing refinery utilisation back to the 1980s.

    The 1980s were a period of extensive refinery rationalisation as oil demand collapsed from high prices in the previous decade.

    Oil and gas demand has been hit hard as a result of the lockdowns from the coronavirus pandemic, and the simultaneous production increases and price cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

    Demand for jet fuel has also remained anaemic, with US demand still half of its pre-coronavirus levels as many people defer air travel.

    Inventories are also not expected to fall back to normal levels until well into 2021.