美股尾盘暴跌 今年涨幅尽失

英国《金融时报》 马姆塔•巴德卡 ， 尼科尔•布洛克 ， 罗宾•威格尔斯沃思 纽约报道
2018.10.25 12:00
美股周三尾盘大幅下挫，抹去了今年以来的最后一点涨幅，原因是投资者对全球经济放缓和美国企业盈利机器面临拐点的担忧日益加剧。

投资者抛售近年来领涨的科技股，导致纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)录得7年来的最大跌幅，并可能创下2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的一个月。

“情况非常糟糕，而且谁知道这什么时候会结束。”投资集团Sender Company and Partners的首席投资官亚当•森德(Adam Sender)表示：“我采取了严加防守的持仓策略。”

周三全天跌势不断扩大，并在尾盘阶段急剧加速，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)和道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)收盘跌入今年以来的负值区域，纳斯达克指数下跌4.4%，进入调整区域。

在利率上升和贸易紧张加剧的背景下，投资者日益觉得这轮经济周期中最好的日子已经过去——卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)和3M等龙头工业企业本周公布的业绩加强了这种看法。

Pacific Life Fund Advisors资产配置主管麦克斯•高曼(Max Gokhman)表示：“这绝对是对盈利见顶的担忧。”

标普500指数连续第六个交易日下跌，收盘下跌3.1％至2656.10点，今年迄今下跌0.65％。纳斯达克综合指数收盘下跌4.4％，至7108.40点，为2011年8月以来的最大单日跌幅。标普500指数约有一半的跌幅发生在最后一小时。

“最后几分钟感觉有点像是恐慌性抛售。”TD Ameritrade的首席策略师JJ•基纳汉(JJ Kinahan)表示：“在这一整轮抛售中，这是我第一次感觉像是恐慌性抛售。”


标普500指数中，受AT&T的拖累，新划出的通信服务板块领跌，跌幅为4.8%。由于美国人开始取消付费有线电视订阅，AT&T未能达到季度盈利预期，该股收跌8%。

纳斯达克指数的生物科技板块下跌6.3%，创下自2011年以来最糟糕的一天。

信息技术板块紧随其后，下跌4.4%，原因是芯片制造商感受到尤其大的压力。标普500半导体与半导体设备指数下跌6.5%，创下2009年1月以来的最大单日跌幅。

基纳汉表示：“科技股去年总是扮演救星，今天带头下跌。”

德州仪器(Texas Instruments)股价下跌逾8%，此前，该公司的营收和盈利预测令投资者失望。AMD收市后公布了令外界失望的利润，使该公司股价在周三交易时段下跌9%之后接着下跌22%。

“半导体与亚洲如此密切相关，”高克曼表示，并称贸易紧张正威胁长期供应安排。“大多数供应链——一旦被打乱，就很难找到替选。”


道指收跌2.4%，至24583.42点，今年迄今下跌0.55%。追踪小盘股的罗素2000(Russell 2000)指数下跌3.1%，至1468.66点，自8月底以来累计下跌逾15%。

本周早些时候，多家美国工业企业报告价格和成本都在上涨，包括3M、卡特彼勒和联合技术公司(United Technologies)在内的一些企业正在讨论涨价计划。

“一切的一切都不利于股市持续上涨，”日本三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)首席金融经济学家克里斯•鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)说，“在经历近10年的增长后，美国经济正处于增长周期的后期阶段，而且有可能失去减税和就业法案带来的动力。每天有1万多“婴儿潮一代”退休，他们面临从股市抽出多少钱的抉择。”

随着投资者寻找所谓避险资产，美国国债价格连续第二天上扬。10年期美国国债收益率下跌逾6个基点，至3.1%，而两年期国债收益率下跌5个基点，至2.83%。国债收益率与价格走势相反。

森德表示，虽然跌幅很大，但股市抛售相当有序，这可能意味着后市还将进一步下跌，加杠杆投资者被这轮下跌弄得措手不及，他们可能会接到追加保证金通知。

“除非我看到‘彻底投降’，否则我不会进场，而在顶部他们是不会彻底投降的。”

译者/何黎

以下为此文英文原文：Late rout wipes out this year’s US stock gains

By Mamta Badkar, Nicole Bullock,Robin Wigglesworth in New York
US stocks fell sharply in late trading on Wednesday, wiping out the last of this year’s gains on swelling concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and an inflection point for Corporate America’s profit machine.

Investors dumped shares of technology companies, which have led the market rally in recent years, sending the Nasdaq Composite index to its biggest loss in seven years and putting it on course for its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis.

“It’s super-ugly, and who knows when it will be over,” said Adam Sender, chief investment officer of Sender Company and Partners, an investment group. “I’m very defensively positioned.”

A sell-off that had been deepening all day accelerated sharply into the close, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ending in negative territory for the year, while the Nasdaq slumped into correction territory after tumbling 4.4 per cent.

Against a backdrop of rising interest rates and growing trade tensions, the feeling that the best days of the economic cycle were in the past was taking hold — fed by the results of bellwether industrial companies such as Caterpillar and 3M this week.

“That is definitely the fear — that we are at peak earnings,” said Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors.

The S&P 500 fell for the sixth straight day, finishing 3.1 per cent lower at 2,656.10 points — and down 0.65 per cent year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite ended 4.4 per cent lower at 7,108.40 for its biggest one-day drop since August 2011. About half the S&P 500’s decline came in the last hour of the trading day.

“It felt like a bit of panic selling in the last few minutes” of trading, said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “This the first time I have felt in this whole sell-off like there was panic selling.”

The newly formed communication services sector led the decline on the S&P 500, falling 4.8 per cent, dragged down by AT&T, which ended 8 per cent lower, after missing quarterly profit forecasts because Americans are ditching their pay-TV subscriptions.

The Nasdaq biotechnology sector stumbled 6.3 per cent for its worst day since 2011.

Information technology was close behind with a 4.4 per cent slide, as chipmakers felt particular strain. The S&P 500 semiconductor and semiconductor equipment index fell 6.5 per cent, its worst one-day performance since January 2009.

“Tech was the area last year that always saved us. Today that is what brought us down,” Mr Kinahan observed.

Shares in Texas Instruments fell more than 8 per cent after its revenues and earnings forecast disappointed investors. After the bell, AMD released disappointing earnings that sent its stock down a further 22 per cent, on top of its 9 per cent decline during Wednesday’s trading hours.

“Semiconductors are so tied to Asia,” Mr Gokhman said, citing trade tensions that are threatening longstanding supply arrangements. “Most supply chains — once you disrupt them, it is hard to find alternatives.”

The Dow ended the day 2.4 per cent lower at 24,583.42 and is now down 0.55 per cent year-to-date. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks fell 3.1 per cent to 1,468.66, bringing its losses to more than 15 per cent since the end of August.

Earlier in the week a group of US industrial companies reported rising prices and costs, with groups including 3M, Caterpillar and United Technologies discussing plans to raise prices.

“Everything but everything is against the stock market’s continued advance,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG. “The economy is in its late stages of the growth cycle after moving ahead for almost 10 full years, and it is in danger of losing the fuel from the tax cuts and Jobs Act. Every day 10,000 more baby-boomers retire and face a decision on how much money to take off the stock market poker table.”

Treasuries rallied for a second day as investors sought out so-called safe haven assets. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond slipped more than 6 basis points to 3.1 per cent, while the yield on the two-year was down 5bp to 2.83 per cent. Yields move inversely to price.

Mr Sender argued that the stock market sell-off was fairly orderly, despite its severity, which could indicate that the tumble had further to run, with margin calls likely to go out to leveraged investors wrongfooted by the slide.

“Until we see a total capitulation I’m not stepping in,” he said. “They don’t ring a bell at the top.”