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高胜率之 Mark Weinstein - High Percentage Trader
虽然为了能够盈利对胜率没有太多的要求，但是高胜率有其特殊的魅力，至少心理承受压力可以小一些。Mark Weinstein的胜率高的惊人99%+，而且不是赚1个点亏100点的那种，盈亏差别可能不大。当然为了挑选出胜率非常高的交易，肯定会过滤掉很多赚钱的机会。下面是从 Jack Schwager 的market wizards中摘取了一部分，大家可以去看完整的访谈。Mark Weinstein - High Percentage Trader（market wizards ）
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Well, let's put it this way: What was your worst single trading month?
I haven't had any losing months.
You have made money in every single month since 1980! ,
Yes. Of course, I could have made a lot more money if I wasn't so cautious, but that is the way I trade.
Do you remember your worst losing week?
I haven't had any losing weeks during that time, but I have had some losing days.
That is an incredible statement. How can you be sure that you are not simply forgetting about
a few weeks when you lost money trading?
The reason I am sure is that I remember all my losses. For example, I have had three losing days in
the last two years. Out of the thousands of trades I made during that time, I had 17 losers, but nine
of them were because my quote machine was down, and when that happens I just get out of my position.
Most traders would be happy winning on 50 percent of their trades, and a win ratio of 75
percent would be spectacular, yet you are implying that your win ratio is somewhere in the vicinity
of 99 percent—that is really hard to believe.
You can check with Leigh. I told him about hundreds of my trades during the past few years.
[Leigh Stevens is a mutual friend who introduced me to Weinstein.]
OK reader, I know what you are saying: '"No losing weeks, but I've had some losing days.' Give me
a break." Frankly, I admit Weinstein's statements sound preposterous. I could not verify his claims
by examining account statements because his partners are vigorous in maintaining the
confidentiality of the partnership's trading activity as it is a private trading firm, not open to the
public. In fact, a number of his partners were adamantly opposed to this interview and were nearly
successful in dissuading Weinstein from participating. The only account statement Weinstein was
willing, or able, to show me was his independent entry in the option trading contest, which did
indeed confirm that he multiplied a $ 100,000 account ninefold in three months with 100 percent
winning trades.
Still unsatisfied, I spoke to Leigh, who has known Weinstein for years and has spent many days
watching him trade. I have known Leigh for three years and can confidently describe him as honest,
low-keyed, and levelheaded. Leigh confirmed that of about 100 of Weinstein's trades he had
personally witnessed and several hundred more Weinstein told him about on the phone (right after
he put them on), he could remember only one that was a loser. Even if because of faulty memory (I
mean this literally, not as a euphemism for dishonesty), Weinstein's actual percentage winning rate
is somewhat lower than he implies, I still believe his win/loss ratio is incredibly high. How can he do it?
Weinstein's own response to this query follows, but to put it in perspective, I
thought some further elaboration would be helpful. Weinstein employs his own custom-designed
state-of-the-art computer systems to monitor constantly technical indicators designed to measure
changes in market momentum. Rather than use the standard values for these indicators, Weinstein
uses his own values, which he frequently adjusts for changing market conditions. He combines this
intensive real-time analysis with comprehensive chart analysis incorporating a variety of
methodologies, including cycles, Fibonacci retracements, and Elliott Wave analysis. Finally, add to
this one last essential ingredient: an uncanny sense of market timing. Only when nearly everything
lines up right and he feels the timing is virtually perfect does he put on a trade. He passes up many
trades that he believes have a high probability of working, but for which he lacks the same degree
of near absolute confidence. Because of the combination of a lifetime devotion to studying the
markets, intensive real-time analysis, innate market sense and incredibly rigorous trade selection,
virtually all of Weinstein's trades are at least marginally profitable at some point within twenty
minutes of entry. That is all Weinstein needs to assure a breakeven or better result.
It helps to understand that Weinstein usually plays for quick profits and covers his trades within
hours or even minutes. Even on position trades, Weinstein will usually take some profits quickly to
assure a net profitable outcome. He also trades markets in rotation, quickly shifting his profits from
market to market, always seeking the profit potential with the lowest perceived risk. Finally,
Weinstein enjoys the support of a floor network that often puts him on the right side of the bidasked
spread.
Weinstein's comments may sound like boasting on the written page, but that belies their tone—
naiveté would be a much closer description. When Weinstein talks about trades, his comments are
peppered with phrases such as, "It's obvious the market is going lower," "This market is so easy." It
is clear he has no conception of how difficult trading is for the rest of us.
How do you explain your ability to win such a high percentage of the time?
Because I have a real fear of the markets. I have found that the greatest traders are the ones who are
most afraid of the markets. My fear of the markets has forced me to hone my timing with great
precision. When I am trading properly, it is like a pool player running racks. If my gut feel of
market conditions is not right, I don't trade. My timing is a combination of experience and my
nervous system. If my nervous system tells me to get out of the position, it is because the market
action triggers something in my knowledge and experience that I have seen before.
I also don't lose much on my trades, because I wait for the exact right moment. Most people will
not wait for the environment to tip itself off. They will walk into the forest when it is still dark,
while I wait until it gets light. Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch
any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in
the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just
any baby antelope, but preferably one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance
it can lose its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading.
When I trade at home, I often watch the sparrows in my garden. When I feed them bread, they take
just a little piece at a time and fly away. They keep on flying back and forth, taking small bits of
bread. They may have to make a hundred stabs at a piece of bread to get what a pigeon gets at one
time, but that is why a pigeon is a pigeon. You will never be able to shoot a sparrow, it is just too
fast. That is the way I day trade. For example, there are times during the day when I am sure that
the S&P is going up, but I don't try to pick the bottom, and I am out before it tops. I just take the
mid-range where the momentum is greatest. That, to me, is trading like a sparrow eats.
Am I paraphrasing you correctly? The cheetah is your analogy for position trading and the
sparrow is your analogy for day trading. The common denominator is that both animals wait
for can't-lose circumstances.
Exactly.
How do you pick your trades?
I use many different types of technical input: charts, Elliott Wave and Gann analysis, Fibonacci
numbers, cycles, sentiment, moving averages, and various oscillators. People think that technical
analysis is unreliable because they tend to pick the one thing they are comfortable with. The
problem is that no single technical approach works all the time. You have to know when to use
each method.
How do you do that?
It is experience and gut feel. I use all forms of technical analysis, but interpret them through gut
feel. I do not believe in mathematical systems that always approach markets in the same way.
Using myself as the "system," I constantly change the input to achieve the same output—profit!
Is there anything you can single out as the most important element in deciding to put on a
trade?
I am always looking for a market that is losing momentum, and then go the other way.
......
What do you think is the public's biggest misconception about the markets?
That people who trade the markets gamble. I know floor traders that have made money for twenty
straight years. You can't call that gambling.
Another major misconception is that people always expect the market to react to news. For
example, when John F. Kennedy was assassinated, the market initially broke very sharply, but then
quickly rebounded to new highs. This price action baffled many people. Investors who sold on the
news only to watch the market reverse blamed the institutions for pushing the market higher. What
they failed to realize is that a market that is fundamentally and technically poised to move higher is
not going to reverse direction because of a news item—even a dramatic one.
Another item I would place under the category of misconceptions is the way the media reports the
reasons for the market being down. They are always saying that the market is down because of
profit taking. I think it would be wonderful if everybody was always taking profits. But, the truth is,
most people lose money, and the reason markets go down is because they take their losses. I know
educated people who watch the news and wonder why the hell they lost money when everyone else
is taking profits. The media owes it to the public to report that the market goes down not only on
profit taking, but on a lot of loss taking as well.
What are the trading rules you live by?
1. Always do your homework.
2. Don't be arrogant. When you get arrogant, you forsake risk control. The best traders are the most
humble.
3. Understand your limitations. Everyone has limitations—even the best traders.
4. Be your own person. Think against the herd, as they must lose in time. Don't trade until an
opportunity presents itself. Knowing when to stay out of the markets is as important as knowing
when to be in them.
5. Your strategy has to be flexible enough to change when the environment changes. The mistake
most people make is they keep the same strategy all the time. They say, "Damn, the market didn't
behave the way I thought it would." Why should it? Life and the markets just don't work that way.
6. Don't get too complacent once you have made profits. The toughest thing in the world is holding
on to profits. That is because once you have attained a goal, you then set a second goal that is
usually the same as the first one: to make more money. Consequently, for many people, attainment
of that second goal is not as rewarding. They may begin to question what they really want from
trading and trigger a self-destruct process in which they wind up losing.
Any final advice you have for the beginning trader?
You have to learn how to lose; it is more important than learning how to win. If you think you are
always going to be a winner, when you lose, you will develop feelings of hostility and end up
blaming the market instead of trying to learn why you lost.
Limit losses quickly. To paraphrase from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, most traders hold on
to their losses too long because they hope the loss will not get larger. They take profits too soon,
because they fear the profit will diminish. Instead, traders should fear a larger loss and hope for a
larger profit.
The cornerstone of Weinstein's trading approach is to wait for those trades in which everything
appears to be lined up exactly right, and the odds of winning seem overwhelming. Even though
most of us can never expect to remotely approach Weinstein's confidence in the trades he selects,
the concept of waiting for only those trades one feels most confident about is sound advice that is
echoed by a number of traders in this book.
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